Wait, we need to test 480 game ideas?

“Wait, we need to test 480 game ideas?
What is wrong with this industry??”

Recently, I met with a former client (a top mobile games publisher) in LA.

We had worked with their team to build a new game validation pipeline with the goal of launching one new hit in 2 years.

Working backward, here’s what we had suggested:

• 𝟰𝟴𝟬 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝘀 (CPI tests)
• 𝟭𝟮 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀 to D1 retention testing
• 𝟲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀 to D7 retention testing
• 𝟭 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 scaling successfully WW

Our prescription was both realistic, and also a reflection of the utter insanity of the current market.

Testing 480 game ideas?  Have we lost our minds??

At a certain point one must ask if we’re playing in the industry / fishing in the right pool.

This made me curious if a <1% product success rate was unique to our industry. 🤔.

How abnormal are we, actually?

The dataset below is LLM-aggregated, so take broadly / with a grain of salt.

𝗦𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝘀𝗲𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄:

• 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 🔨😅 highest success rate + highest defensibility (albeit low scalability). Plan B? 😜

• 𝗕𝟮𝗕 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵 has medium success rate and high defensibility.  Many new entrants in past 2 years.

• 𝗣𝗖 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀: medium success rate, medium defensibility (TAM lower than mobile).

• 𝗩𝗥 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀: medium success rate, higher defensibility given lower ease of entry.

• 𝗠𝗼𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀:  one-two punch 👊👊😔 of low success rate and low defensibility, especially for casual games, and midcore games without technical moats.

*Defensibility = speed at which copycats can disrupt you with a highly similar product.

❓ 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗲𝗲 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱/𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲❓

May the odds be ever in your favor. ✌️