Kill or Pivot: A Comprehensive Guide for Mobile Game Devs

Making your first mobile game is an emotional journey, but holding onto a game that isn’t making money for too long can be a big mistake. Many indie developers hope that one more update might just fix things, but the reality is different. In 2025, the mobile gaming market will be tough, and only a few titles will succeed.

With AppMagic’s Success Meter, we can see how many games make good revenue. In our example, we set the benchmark at $100K in-app revenue per month. The data shows that in most casual game genres, only no more than 1% of games reach this level, meaning thousands of titles fail every year.

The same holds for Hybridcasual and Hypercasual. Even with a lower benchmark of 100K installs per month, 5% of games at most manage to reach it.

This guide will help you decide when to pivot, how to adjust your game, and when to move on so that your next project has a better chance of success.

Signs that your game needs a pivot

At Appodeal Publishing, we see many indie developers struggling to know when to pivot. Many believe their game just needs more updates, but the numbers often say otherwise.

Key metrics to check:

• CPI higher than LTV: If getting new players costs more than what they spend in the game, your monetization isn’t working.
• Tutorial conversion: If fewer than 75% of players finish the tutorial, it may be confusing. A low number means players don’t understand how to play.
• First Payment conversion: Measure it in the first week. If few players spend money early on, it’s a sign they aren’t interested in your in-game purchases.
• Low cumulative ARPU: If the average revenue per user remains low even with UA campaigns, the game’s economy or engagement loop needs a rethink. Besides, in the beginning, the quality of your audience may vary: first week’s beginners and mature users after one week are not quite the same.
• Day 0 Retention Rate: It shows the share of users that return to the game in the next 24 hours after first joining the game. It helps understand the challenges faster.
• Day 1 / Day 7 / Day 30 Retention Rates: If your Day 1 retention is below 40%, Day 7 below 15%, and Day 30 under 7% (these vary, however), it means players aren’t staying long enough to justify further investment, and changes are needed.

This is not a full list, but these numbers give a quick idea of whether or not your game has a chance of succeeding.

Market feedback: another telling sign

Numbers tell part of the story, but player feedback is just as important. Watch out for:

• Bad reviews about gameplay: If players complain about controls, difficulty, or lack of fun, these are serious problems.
• Low engagement even after updates: If new features do not improve retention, your core game loop might be weak.

You can check feedback in app store reviews, YouTube videos, and communities like Reddit.

Why some developers struggle to pivot

Many developers keep working on a game even when it’s failing because of these two common mistakes:

• Emotional attachment (sunk cost fallacy): Developers don’t want to give up after spending months, let alone years, on their game.
• Focusing on small changes instead of big improvements: UI tweaks and balance updates won’t fix a game if its core mechanics or market fit are wrong.

Understanding these signs early can save months of work and give your game a better chance of success.

How to pivot the right way

If your game isn’t performing well, you don’t always have to start from scratch. There are two ways to pivot—or two scales to pivoting, so to speak:

• Minor pivots are small changes to monetization, gameplay, or art while keeping the core mechanics the same.
• Major pivots involve bigger changes, like switching game genres, targeting a new audience, or rebranding.

Minor pivots (if the core gameplay has potential)

If your game has decent retention and good playtime but low revenue, small changes can help.

1. Adjusting monetization

Sometimes, there’s no need to shut down a project and start from scratch. If your core gameplay has decent retention and playtime, which often signals long-term potential, the key to success might be monetization improvements and the introduction of new events and offers.

IAP offers in Hybridcasual games. Source: Monetization Intelligence

From Chain Offers and Piggy Banks to Double and Triple Offers with a Buy All option—there are many ways to optimize monetization without disrupting the core experience.

This doesn’t mean, however, that you need to oversaturate your game with every possible offer type. Start by optimizing existing ones using the best design tricks from top-performing games. Once you’ve refined what’s already in place, gradually introduce new offer types, testing their impact on engagement and revenue. Even small, well-executed tweaks can significantly boost conversion rates and ARPPU, driving sustainable growth.

Testing different monetization strategies can significantly impact revenue without changing the game’s core mechanics.

Optimizing ad monetization involves experimenting with rewarded video placements, reducing intrusive ads, or adjusting ad frequency in order to balance revenue with user experience. Adding new ad networks can also do the trick.

🔹 Example: At Appodeal, we advise you to learn how it will affect your ARPU and engagement metrics such as retention rate, session length, etc. The screenshot below shows the result of such a test: with Day 7 ARPU up by 75%, there was no negative impact on retention, which is a good result. This means that you can add the new ad network to the main waterfall configuration.

Appodeal Dashboard. Source: appodeal.com

It’s also important to determine the most profitable in-app impression frequency, as it can substantially affect retention and session length. It is always best to run several tests to determine the best placement for interstitials and their optimal frequency. In the screenshot below, the segment with a lower number of impressions for interstitials is performing worse in terms of ARPU, and its Day 1 Retention Rate stays the same. In this particular case, it would make sense to run a test with a higher number of impressions to see how this affects the key metrics.

Appodeal Dashboard. Source: appodeal.com

Another good idea would be to test different banner refresh rates or limit ad impressions for new users. Another option still is to hold back from showing ads during the first few sessions. All of that may also have a positive effect on LTV.

As for other monetization strategies:

• IAP (In-App Purchases) strategy: If players are engaging but not spending, tweaking pricing, bundle offers, or adding limited-time deals can drive conversions.
• Hybrid monetization: Combining ads and IAPs strategically can maximize revenue, ensuring non-paying players still contribute via ad views.

Understanding your monetization model and IAPs vs. ad revenue split is key. Many networks support hybrid optimization, but not all. Ensure your campaigns align with your monetization strategy.

2. Small gameplay tweaks

Sometimes, minor gameplay adjustments can significantly boost retention. If players drop off too early, look for ways to smooth their experience:

• Better onboarding: Simplifying tutorials, adding interactive guidance, or breaking down mechanics into smaller learning steps can improve Day 1 retention.
• Refined difficulty curve: If retention drops at specific levels, adjusting progression, balancing enemy AI, or fine-tuning rewards can help keep players engaged.
• Shorter play sessions: Casual players often prefer bite-sized gameplay. Ensuring levels are quick and satisfying can improve engagement.

🔹 Example: A great example of making tutorials simpler along with simplifying onboarding and refining the difficulty curve is Fortnite—first, you play with bots and learn the basic game mechanics instead of reading long tutorials. After that, the matchmaking algorithm pits you against suitable opponents based on your experience.

Super Mario Bros. is another great example of a well-designed difficulty curve. Its World 1-1, the first level designed as a tutorial, starts with simple obstacles that gradually get harder, teaching players all the game mechanics step by step. By the end, players have learned everything they need to complete the game.

In a shorter play session, you can educate players about certain types of mechanics one by one, which organically simplifies the onboarding process. This is very often seen in three-in-a-row games.

3. Changing art and narrative for a new audience

Sometimes, a visual makeover can attract a new player base.

• Change your target audience: If the game isn’t working for casual players, make it more appealing to mid-core players by tweaking the design, art, and UI.
• Introduce seasonal or cultural reskins: Use holiday themes (Christmas, Halloween, etc.) or popular styles (e.g., anime or retro) to attract new players.
• A/B test new visuals: Try different characters, UI layouts, or colors to see what players like best.

Changing the art style and design is a big challenge, but starting small can make it more manageable. Choose a certain aspect you’d like to adjust—it can be character design, color palette, UI elements, or even the game’s dimension (going from 2D to 3D or vice versa).

🔹 Example: Shifting a familiar formula into 3D can breathe new life into the game, making it feel fresh while also helping with market positioning. Even minor visual tweaks can impact player perception and UA performance, especially in highly competitive genres.

Top 10 Hypercasual Puzzles by downloads and revenue. Source: AppMagic

If small changes aren’t cutting it, a major pivot is due, such as changing the genre, audience, or branding.

Major pivots (if the game needs a bigger shift)

If minor adjustments aren’t enough to improve retention or revenue, your game may need a bigger pivot. This means making major adjustments to the gameplay, audience, or branding while still using existing assets to avoid starting from scratch.

1. Switching genre or mechanics while reusing assets

Sometimes, a game’s mechanics don’t work, but its art, animations, and environments are still valuable. Instead of scrapping these altogether, try repurposing your assets for a new genre.

🔹Examples:

Hypercasual → Hybridcasual: Adding progression, meta-features, or deeper mechanics can help your game attract long-term players.

Puzzle Game → Idle Game: If a Puzzle lacks engagement, turn it into an Idle game by adding automation and rewards.

Sometimes, you can completely change your core gameplay while keeping the characters and meta intact—just like Trailmix did with Love & Pies. Today, it stands as one of the leading Merge-2 games, generating over $59M in revenue, according to AppMagic.

However, the road to success wasn’t a straight trail (got it?). Before settling on Merge-2, the developers iterated and tested retention with various puzzle mechanics, including Match-3. Alongside gameplay changes, they also refined the art style, making characters less cartoonish.

2. Targeting a different audience

If a game’s mechanics work yet it still struggles with retention or monetization, shifting to a different audience can be a powerful pivot.

🔹 Ways to pivot:

• Casual → Hybridcasual: Add depth, progression, and monetization layers to make the game appeal to more dedicated players.
• Revamped art style & tone: A cute, family-friendly game that is struggling in the West may well succeed in Asia with an anime-inspired art style.
• Monetization adjustments for a new market: Games aimed at younger players may work better with ads, while older players may prefer in-app purchases.

🔹 Example: Over the past two years, many top Hypercasual games have shifted toward IAP monetization, proving that even ad-driven models can adapt for higher revenue potential.

The best lessons come not just from comparing Hybridcasual to Hypercasual but also from studying individual success stories. Take VOODOO’s Mob Control, for example, which gradually transitioned from an ad-driven model to IAP monetization.

Hypercasual revenue growth over the years. Source: AppMagic

3. Relaunching with a new branding and marketing strategy

Sometimes, a game doesn’t fail because of gameplay but because it wasn’t marketed properly. A relaunch can give it a second chance.

Ways to rebrand:

• New Name & Visual Identity: A redesigned app icon or logo, as well as UI updates, can make the game feel new.
• Better Store Positioning: Improve your App Store Optimization (ASO), game description, and keywords to attract the right players.
• New Marketing Approach: Try different ad creatives, new ad networks, influencer marketing, or community-building.

A major pivot takes more effort, but if done strategically, it can turn a failing game into a success.

4. Validating the pivot before full commitment

Before making big changes, A/B testing can show what works. Key areas to test:

• Monetization models: Try different ad placements, IAP bundles, or hybrid models.
• Gameplay mechanics: Compare engagement with new and old gameplay loops.
• Art and theme: Test various visuals or UI designs to see what players prefer.

A soft launch should focus on core metrics like retention (D1 & D7), monetization (ARPU, LTV), and store positioning (ASO). If these improve, scale up UA. If not, consider a deeper pivot.

If the budget is tight, don’t target multiple Tier-1 countries. Focus on one, like the UK or the US. These markets have the highest-paying audiences, and the metrics from your tests can be projected onto other Tier-1 regions.

In terms of evaluating the first results for installs, there are two approaches:

• Conservative: at least 500 installs
• Ideal (if budget allows): 1,000 installs

Beyond data, qualitative feedback is crucial to understanding how the pivot is received.

• Сheck player reviews and community sentiment: If sentiment remains negative, deeper issues may still exist.
• Analyze where players drop off or disengage: Identify where users drop off or disengage post-pivot.
• Evaluate if KPIs justify a full launch: If retention, engagement, and monetization don’t show a strong improvement, further iteration may be needed.

Validating a pivot before full commitment ensures that changes are data-driven and market-aligned—and, hence, more likely to succeed.

When to walk away and start from scratch

Knowing when to stop iterating and move on is crucial, and calling it quits is one of the hardest decisions for indie developers. We’ve seen many developers spend months trying to fix a game that, from the market perspective, has little chance of success.

A structured pivot timeline can prevent wasted resources. In the first 4 to 6 weeks, focus on A/B testing monetization changes and minor gameplay tweaks. By month 3, analyze retention and LTV trends. If key KPIs remain low by month 6, consider a major pivot or moving on to a new project. Pouring more resources into a game that isn’t gaining traction can delay your next, more promising project.

Instead of seeing it as a failure, treat it as market research—you’ve gathered valuable insights on what works and what doesn’t. Successful developers iterate not just on games but on entire ideas. By applying these learnings to a brand new concept, you significantly increase your next game’s chances of success. Shutting down one project isn’t the end—it’s an opportunity to build something better with the insights gained.

Final checklist: do you need to pivot?

Before making your next move, go through this checklist to measure your game’s performance. If you check multiple boxes, it’s time to consider a pivot.

Key performance indicators

• CPI higher than LTV: acquiring users costs more than what they spend.
• Low retention: less than 40% on Day 1, 15% on Day 7, and 7% on Day 30 (these metrics are flexible, however, and may vary).
• Poor ARPU (e.g., < $0.10 vs. $0.30–$1.00 for mobile games with ad monetization): revenue per user is too low even after marketing efforts.
• Low tutorial completion (<75%): players don’t understand how to play.
• Few first-time purchases: players aren’t interested in IAP offers.

Market & player feedback

• Bad reviews: complaints about controls, difficulty, or lack of fun.
• Low engagement after updates: new features don’t improve retention.
• Negative sentiment in communities: Reddit, Discord, and App Store reviews suggest players are not hooked.

Development mindset

• You’re too emotionally attached: you keep pushing for updates, yet data says the game is failing.
• You’re focusing on small tweaks: UI updates and balance fixes won’t save a game with fundamental core issues.

Next steps based on your results

🔹 1 to 2 boxes checked → try a minor pivot by updating your monetization, tutorial, or difficulty balance.

🔹 3 to 5 boxes checked → consider a major pivot by changing the genre, audience, or monetization model.

🔹 6+ boxes checked → it may be time to walk away and apply what you’ve learned to your next project.

Giving up on a game doesn’t mean giving up on a career—while sticking with a dead-end project might well do. The best developers stay flexible, data-driven, and open to change. Every iteration, whether successful or not, brings insights that can fuel a stronger, more viable game in the future. Adapt, test, and grow.