Phillip Black

𝗔𝗜 𝗜𝗡 𝗚𝗔𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗛𝗔𝗦 𝗙𝗟𝗢𝗣𝗣𝗘𝗗. Humanity may be on a colossal technology frontier, but gaming is being dragged along with AI. Instead of surfing atop the wave, it's retreated to the wake. Gaming has historically been the first-best use case for new technology, so where did it all go so wrong? In the 26 months since ChatGPT launched, Web3 has made more tangible progress than AI gaming applications. Any technology outpaced by Web3's progress is in danger of irrelevance. And it's for good reason: so far, AI's visible footprint in games has been limited to a series of Cosmic Lounge press releases (I want my match-3 levels!) and a sixth finger in Call of Duty key art. Everything else appears to be cheap VC slideware or corporate investor day fantasies. It's true that gaming effectively subsidized the AI revolution by […]

𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗞𝗲𝗲𝗽𝘀: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗤𝟱 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗺 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 The fate of PC & Console's (HD) live-service model hangs on Q5's ambitious lineup: Strinova, Infinity Nikki, Path of Exile 2, Supervive, Marvel Rivals, and Delta Force. Should these titles fail to gain traction, the industry faces a cascade of down rounds, studio closures, and layoffs—not to mention a wholesale reassessment of the HD live-service paradigm. Eric Seufert's meditation on "The last social media platform" may prove prescient; we might witness the same in HD live service.The warning signs are already apparent. Mountaintop Studios' venture-backed Spectre Divide has become a cautionary tale, with peak simultaneous users (PSU) dropping below 100. Supervive's trajectory is similar, maintaining 4,000 PSU despite years of development, encouraging playtests, and the backing of the former League of Legends leadership team. Its salvation may lie in the East, given that […]

Yes, Arcane was a disaster and a function of IP narcissism. It's transmedia bingo 18 different ways. From the Bloomberg exposé:• Riot spent about $250 million on two seasons of the series• Four people with knowledge of Arcane’s production said the company didn’t have a robust plan to recoup the cost of the show before it launched.• Riot believed the show would be the first of many produced by its new entertainment division, which would transform the Los Angeles-based company into the next Walt Disney Co.• Netflix paid Riot $3 million an episode and Tencent an additional $3 million for the rights to show it in China.• Those payments amounted to less than half the total cost. • The company scaled back its Hollywood ambitions recently, ending Arcane and pausing development on other adaptations. • The pricey passion project, backed […]

Arguments justifying Arcane on the grounds that "Riot can afford it" are already lost. This framing positions Arcane as a cost center. Marketing heads are commonly called "Heads of Growth" because marketing isn't supposed to be a cost center; instead, it ought to be a profit center. It's a beautiful show (I loved it! Thank you for your subsidy!), and if Riot wants to spend $250M on IP narcissism, they can and should (they're also a private company), but that's different from justifying it within a cost-benefit framework.It's a common misconception that this framework requires easily observable evidence to be useful. Instead, it asks for higher rigor and a direct answer to "How could Arcane deliver over $250M of ROI relative to the best use of investment?" The higher the investment, the more intense the scrutiny level. Another way to […]

Pocket Pair, the creator of Palworld, cited the patents Nintendo is suing them under. And boy, is it Japanese patent law nuts. It's enough to radicalize me against patent protection of any type in games (I'm looking at you, Shadow of War). While something might be lost in translation, the breath is insane.𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗡𝗼. 𝗝𝗣𝟳𝟱𝟰𝟱𝟭𝟵𝟭𝗕𝟭It tries to patent, among other things, how players capture and train virtual creatures over time, including evolution mechanics.— It specifically discussed how multiple evolution paths change stats based on player input (e.g., a creature gets more health because you pet it).𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗡𝗼. 𝗝𝗣𝟳𝟱𝟮𝟴𝟯𝟵𝟬𝗕𝟮This one is sore nuts, trying to patent how players interact in biomes, like altering terrain or weather conditions. It includes progression systems like resource points based on in-game gathering activities!𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗡𝗼. 𝗝𝗣𝟳𝟰𝟵𝟯𝟭𝟭𝟳𝗕𝟮This one is more technical, and I'm unsure how to read […]

𝗔𝗡𝗜𝗠𝗘 𝗦𝗛𝗢𝗢𝗧𝗘𝗥 𝗛𝗜𝗧𝗦 𝟰𝟬𝟬𝗸 𝗪𝗜𝗦𝗛𝗟𝗜𝗦𝗧𝗦; 𝗕𝗥𝗔𝗖𝗘 𝗬𝗢𝗨𝗥𝗦𝗘𝗟𝗙• Strinova hits 400k Steam Wishlists• Waifu 3rd-person shooter w/nearly 4M web pre-registrations• From iDreamSky, a Chinese Studio• Has Tencent Money• ~$500M market cap; publicly traded on the Hong Kong Exchange• Previously published Western Games in China (e.g., War Robots, Subway Surfers)• With the rise of Steam China, this could be a considerable cross-region game.• Remember, Nikkie and Genshin were hits in the U.S. (25% rev share)! 𝗗𝗨𝗡𝗚𝗘𝗢𝗡 𝗙𝗜𝗚𝗛𝗧𝗘𝗥 𝗢𝗡𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘, 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗕𝗜𝗚𝗚𝗘𝗦𝗧 𝗚𝗔𝗠𝗘 𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗦 𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥, 𝗦𝗟𝗢𝗪𝗜𝗡𝗚• Bigger than Monopoly Go!• ~$700M over 6 months; iOS only• $88 Revenue Per Download!• But downloads are crumbling, far below Honor of Kings (10-20k v.s. 500k Weekly)• Something doesn’t smell right; this limited appeal? Data error?• The total revenue curve is bending inward, too.𝗛𝗔𝗩𝗘 𝗪𝗘𝗕𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗥𝗘𝘀 𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗖𝗛𝗘𝗗 𝗘𝗤𝗨𝗜𝗕𝗟𝗥𝗨𝗜𝗠? 𝟳𝟬%+ 𝗔𝗗𝗢𝗣𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡• Huuuge Games: In H1 2024 DTC revenues accounted for […]

𝗞𝗢𝗡𝗩𝗢𝗬 𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗔 𝗦𝗨𝗚𝗚𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗦 𝗚𝗔𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗪𝗜𝗟𝗟 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗚𝗥𝗢𝗪• From $188M to $223M in 2029.• This means virtually no growth. Huh?• $188B is worth about $218B in 2029 dollars assuming a 3% inflation rates.• $218B to $223B is a 2% change, way, way below the S&P 500 8% real 𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘶𝘢𝘭 growth rate.• Inflation and S&P benchmarks need to be a core part of any long-run market analysis. 𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗢𝗙 𝗘𝗠𝗣𝗜𝗥𝗘𝘀 𝗠𝗢𝗕𝗜𝗟𝗘 𝗜𝗦 𝗛𝗨𝗚𝗘• An over 1M download start is far above other recent releases, including the steady-eddy Sea of Conquest from Fun Plus.• Uses the RTS element to fake ad into 4x, but less brutally then Last War.• After a big brand budget burst, will this sustain? Let’s see!𝟰𝘅 𝗠𝗜𝗥𝗥𝗢𝗥𝗦 𝗛𝗘𝗚𝗘𝗠𝗢𝗡 𝗣𝗢𝗟𝗜𝗧𝗜𝗖𝗦• U.S. dominates, but China’s RPD is unusually high (~10% of downloads but 20% of revenue).• 4x is a region uniting […]

Data Dump Friday; Fri Oct 18th, Week 21 𝗝𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗻’𝘀 𝗣𝗖 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝟯𝗫’𝗗 𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟵• Similar trend when working with clients: Japan stands out.• Apex Legends famously has a devoted Japanese player base.• How to figure out where to go next with the insight?• More Japanese localization and characters?• The West needs to spend more time understanding how they broke through in Japan to begin with.𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝘆 𝗚𝗼 𝗛𝗮𝗱 𝗔 𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝟯 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝗟• Early ARPU signs must have reinforced the decision to launch, but the shape of the ARPU is uncertain. How did they calibrate UA?• This is where the DS team made big bucks (if they were right).• The team thought long soft launches drain morale, which is potentially why Squad Busters launched early.• MiHoYo thinks they can will games to No. 1.𝗢𝗙𝗙 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗥𝗜𝗗 𝗚𝗢𝗘𝗦 𝗢𝗙𝗙 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗚𝗥𝗜𝗗• Web3 […]