Sometimes the Butt of F2P Liveops will consume my thoughts for a day.

Sometimes the Butt of F2P Liveops will consume my thoughts for a day. Today is that day. In the talk, Teut Weidemann documents the rhythms of F2P engagement and monetization curves like an archaeologist uncovering a secret code. He illustrates what happens when you zoom in. Like, really in. For instance, concurrent users during football matches (the boring European kind) dip during game time and spike during halftime. Yes, that creates a butt shape (wait until you see his next shape). This kind of minute observation makes Ultra Local Live Ops™ compelling, finally providing a meaningful avenue for the "personalization" agenda."Personalization" has become an ugly stepchild to price discrimination, mainly focused on triggering successive live ops offers. CRM efforts might localize notifications or reference local holidays, but rarely capture the immediacy of "what's happening now" or what's physically around players. […]

Phillip Black April 17

Journal

Dream Games is opening the UA floodgates for Royal Kingdom

𝗘𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗢𝗠𝗜𝗖𝗦 𝗢𝗙 𝗖𝗔𝗡𝗡𝗜𝗕𝗔𝗟𝗜𝗭𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 & 𝗥𝗢𝗬𝗔𝗟 𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚𝗗𝗢𝗠 Dream Games is opening the UA floodgates for Royal Kingdom, deploying significant marketing spend and celebrity-driven creative. This move reflects a familiar pattern: Royal Match itself required about two years to scale effectively. But now, the Dream Games UA team faces a new paradigm: how to optimally scale spending across two titles and manage new franchise-level LTV dynamics. In the short run, allocation optimization is obvious as UA managers frequently “rotate” spend across channels within a day as CPIs spike with additional channel capital. The marginal game should function as a new channel of sorts to balance spend against ROAS. However, franchises also bring new modeling considerations.The expected value of players engaging with both games simultaneously can be modeled explicitly as:expected value,DualPlay = probability,DualPlay(LTV,old + LTV,new)Here, the probability of simultaneous engagement represents the remaining […]

Phillip Black April 16

Journal

Seeds are one of the most powerful variables in game design.

Seeds are one of the most powerful variables in game design, and one of the least acknowledged. EA’s Data Science team published a paper showing a 5x difference in win rate—from 15% to 75%—based only on the seed used to initialize a board. The level design and other match parameters remained the same! Computers can’t generate genuine randomness, so they "anchor" on seeds: a fixed number generates a pseudo-random sequence. The initial board state is the same if the seed stays the same. Without fixed seeds, every level must be balanced across the entire range of possible outcomes. When match designers look at attempts per success, seeds hide so much of the variability in experience, creating uneven ground to balance against. Battle Royales do this too, wherein loot tables are often seeded, either consciously selected or not.The hierarchical rules of […]

Phillip Black April 15

Highlights

How to Create the MONOPOLY GO! Effect

Monopoly Go’s economy design makes social casino accessible. The roll-move-resolve loop is more approachable on a board than on a slots reel, so the game can create a real sense of tension (the board piece will sometimes enter bullet time before landing on a tile). Another achievement is the game’s events, which cut to the core of the design. Recurring events are a key source of how the game creates “runs” by stringing together level climbing in different, interconnected progression centres. While Monopoly Go certainly wasn’t the first to invent “move around board, trigger events”, it’s undoubtedly popularized it. It’s starting to appear as its own genre, and even morphing into Archero 2 mini-games. Excel Sheet here. The events “tickle” the mind by creating cascading effects where multiple reward centres trigger, in some time interconnected ways. The economy is of […]

Phillip Black April 11

Journal

War Robots has never received the credit it deserves.

War Robots has never received the credit it deserves for its financial and design achievements. Launching a PvP combat experience in 2014 with PS2-level graphics using virtual dual analog sticks seemed skeptical at best, yet the team didn't just create a "Forever Franchise"; it grew into one. A former Scopely PM described their strategy as taking "C/C+ games and liveop'ing them into B/B+" products. Something similar has happened here, with the franchise catering to a sticky core audience, expanding it over time, and becoming an A product. IAP Revenue is astonishingly stable despite massive changes in download composition (I'm sure the Indian shift is unrelated to geopolitics...). War Robots successfully captured not only Eastern European tankies but also the Japanese and US players. Its recent relaunch in China also appears more promising than its initial entry.Initially, compared to World of Tanks […]

Phillip Black April 9

Journal

Supercell is going to the movies, baby.

Coincidence? I think not. Supercell is going to the movies, baby. Sonic, Mario, and now Minecraft will have every game business development exec busin’ around Los Angeles for months. World of Warcraft, Borderlands, and Monster Hunter "interpretations" will be swept under the rug. And we already know Arcane’s famed ability to blow NINE figures. While Hollywood experiences cyclical trends, this has earned the “transmedia” sub-brand, a sort of VC baptism of the strategy. Yet none of these franchises seem to use it. None of them were timed with content updates—releases across a franchise should be synchronized to amplify the transmedia effects. The same is true for breakout hit 𝘍𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘵, which had no wide release. Ultimately, the Supercell platform is vast (360M MAU, or about the size of the United States), and they’ve experimented with short-form animation on YouTube. With all […]

Phillip Black April 8

Journal

Anti-AI Artists Need Better Arguments

𝗔𝗻𝘁𝗶-𝗔𝗜 𝗔𝗿𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗡𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝗿𝗴𝘂𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀. 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆'𝗿𝗲 𝗟𝗼𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝗗𝗲𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗲 Another wave of AI advances, another chorus of artists crying foul. Each wave has been unoccupied by serious argumentation; pro-Copyrightists need to advance something beyond an assumed conclusion if they want to win minds, not just hearts. Copyrightists routinely declare AI-generated art and "training" as copyright infringement and insist artists are owed royalties. This assumption is anything but obvious. If every artist owes royalties to those who came before, should every "pop" artist who creates in the style of Eduardo Paolozzi owe his estate royalties? Film director Tarantino routinely mirrors Spaghetti-western shots; his royalty bill must be absurd. Art and science have always evolved by imitation and influence; the very idea of copyright is a recent invention. No one knows this better than games!The universal outcry against WB Games' patenting […]

Phillip Black April 3

Journal

Netflix Needs to Acquire the Jack-of-All-Trades

𝗡𝗲𝘁𝗳𝗹𝗶𝘅 𝗡𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗰𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗝𝗮𝗰𝗸-𝗼𝗳-𝗔𝗹𝗹-𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 Netflix Games finally has a coherent strategy—hallelujah! Yet, despite this clarity, it's missing the most obvious acquisition opportunity since Sony scooped up Insomniac Games: Jackbox Games. Netflix pushes games to subscribers via a row within its mobile app, directing users to separate App Store pages for download. The strategy was flawed from the start, as 70%+ of Netflix consumption happens on TVs. The Games group desperately sought awareness, resorting to 𝑝ℎ𝑦𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑏𝑜𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠 reading: "Wait, Netflix has Games?" A modest improvement, but still failing to meet subscribers where they are—TV.While Netflix had an AAA FPS studio, it was dubious that it could ever solve distribution or input challenges. Netflix's sprawling device ecosystem and lack of a dedicated controller raised doubts from day 1—unless another ill-fated game streaming service was planned (RIP OnLive, Stadia, GameFly, and xCloud).Enter […]

Phillip Black March 31

Journal

Four Things from GDC

𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗚𝗗𝗖 𝟭. 𝗪𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝙬𝙖𝙣𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙡𝙞𝙫𝙚This revelation insight from former Machine Zone CEO Gabe Leydon spun my head throughout the conference. He's right: our passion isn't dead, but it's undoubtedly been crowded out. Mobile obsesses over acquisition, while HD fixates on fundraising. New platform dreams—web3, AR/VR, HTML5, UGC—have largely fizzled. Yet these platforms persist, surviving but not thriving. Mock AR/VR as the "Dippin' Dots of Games" if you like, but at least those developers burn with genuine passion.The rest of the industry must reignite the will to survive—the kind we see from firms like Supercell, Lessmore, and Hypehype.𝟮. 𝗔𝗜 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆-𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲; 𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄Michail Katkoff made an excellent observation about the absence of the "world-changing" bravado heard from SF founders intoxicated by Paul Graham essays. Instead, the talks were pragmatic—topics like " 'Angry Birds' and AI […]

Phillip Black March 24

Highlights

U.S. Economy Shapes Mobile Gaming’s Future

𝗠𝗼𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴'𝘀 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝘃𝗶𝘃𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨.𝗦. 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆. 𝗜𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗔𝘀𝗸 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝗔 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲 If you're European, you need the U.S. economy to grow. If you're Canadian, you need the U.S. economy to grow. This sobering reality underscores nearly every Western mobile development hub today: for mobile gaming to grow, the U.S. needs to grow. Although optimistic narratives from developing markets like India and Brazil are abundant, their growth rates still pale compared to the U.S.'s real spending power growth. For the foreseeable future, it's U.S. or bust in mobile gaming, a reality suggesting mobile gaming doesn't control its destiny. Political literature in the early 2000s enthusiastically promoted the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) as future economic powerhouses. Since then, however, these countries have largely underperformed expectations. Rather than converging with the U.S., the gap has widened, […]

Phillip Black March 19

Highlights

Tripledot’s Big Gamble on nearly $1B Acquisition

𝗗𝗜𝗚𝗘𝗦𝗧 𝗢𝗥 𝗗𝗜𝗘: 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗱𝗼𝘁’𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗯𝗹𝗲 Tripledot’s nearly $1B acquisition of Applovin's studios is a massive gamble but reflects the shrinking pool in the hyper-to-hybrid publisher game. With this move, Tripledot radically shifts from 1% IAP to majority reliance. Meanwhile, peers like Voodoo and Homa slug through slow hyper-to-hybrid transitions. Rather than incremental growth, Tripledot opted for transformative growth overnight, betting they will learn, grow, and wield a zoo of studios and genres. Tripledot's filings reveal an astounding 98% ad revenue share, which brought in over $300M last year. Yet margins languished at a frustrating 15%, explaining the strategic necessity of shifting toward IAP and hybridcasual for better cost leverage and valuations. This is another reminder that gaming's unique economics differ significantly from traditional subscription models like Netflix or even software more broadly.Eric Seufert’s recent "Economics of Mobile Gaming" highlights […]

Phillip Black March 14

Journal

The Economics of Match Events

Nearly all economic activity in match-based or “saga”-based metas follows the fundamental relationship: Revenuei=Gold Sinki=Attemptsi⋅Gold Sink Per AttemptiRevenuei=Gold Sinki=Attemptsi⋅Gold Sink Per Attempti where, ∙∙ RevenueiRevenuei is the revenue for the iith player.∙∙ AttemptsiAttemptsi is the number of attempts made by the iith player.∙∙ Gold Sink Per AttemptiGold Sink Per Attempti is the average of gold spent per attempt by the iith player. Holding Gold Sink Per AttemptGold Sink Per Attempt constant, an increase in AttemptsAttempts leads to higher RevenueRevenue. Similarly, increasing the Gold Sink Per AttemptGold Sink Per Attempt while holding AttemptsAttempts constant also raises RevenueRevenue. Many innovations in match economies operate within this framework. For instance, a “super light ball” mechanic increases AttemptsAttempts but reduces the Gold Sink Per AttemptGold Sink Per Attempt. Events follow the same structure. Basic Match Model At the aggregate level, revenue across all players is:Revenue=∑i(Attemptsi⋅Gold Sink Per Attempti)Revenue=∑i(Attemptsi⋅Gold Sink Per Attempti) Event Uplift Events affect revenue by shifting the number of attempts or the gold sink […]

Phillip Black February 24

Phillip Black

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