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Phillip Black

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WTF Are These 3 Battle Pass Things

When I wrote, Economics of Battle Pass Are Broken. Letโ€™s Fix It in 2o21, I argued that designers needed to play with ADMC (average daily monetization cap) to transform the pass from an engagement to a monetization vertical. Since then, every subsequent โ€œinnovationโ€ has been a creative exercise in price increases. Fortnite realized this long ago, which is why the direct store has ballooned in content and uses โ€œthe vaultโ€ to sell past pass-specific content; the 67% direct store, 33% battle pass revenue split leaked from the 2012 Epic v. Apple trial likely skews harder direct store since. Two Options: d or fc In the original model, increasing spend depth may be achieved by decreasing dd or the pass length, thereby shipping more passes over a given period. averagedailymonetizationcap=Nโˆ‘i=1(yi)+fcdaveragedailymonetizationcap=โˆ‘i=1N(yi)+fcd Mobile games mastered this in months, using low marginal cost, fractionalized, and storable content (currencies! resources!). For example, this was the exact strategy Marvel Snap […]

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๐—ก๐—˜๐—ช ๐—ฃ๐—ข๐—ž๐—˜๐— ๐—ข๐—ก ๐—ง๐—–๐—š ๐—ช๐—œ๐—Ÿ๐—Ÿ ๐—š๐—ข ๐—ก๐—ข๐—ช๐—›๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—˜

๐—ก๐—˜๐—ช ๐—ฃ๐—ข๐—ž๐—˜๐— ๐—ข๐—ก ๐—ง๐—–๐—š ๐—ช๐—œ๐—Ÿ๐—Ÿ ๐—š๐—ข ๐—ก๐—ข๐—ช๐—›๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—˜โ€ข Prior mobile Pokemon CCG ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฏโ€™๐˜ต ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜๐˜ˆ๐˜—. Yes, thatโ€™s right.โ€ข The new game is polished but revolves around timer-based pack openings.โ€ข ๐—ฌ๐—ผ๐˜‚ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—ปโ€™๐˜ ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜† ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ธ๐˜€ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚ ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜† ๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ธ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—บ.โ€ข Over $20M so far, but downloads ๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜.โ€ข Japan dominates ($26/download; U.S.: $4.36).โ€ข Strong collection loops with Codex moments at pack openings but a weaker version of physical CCG.โ€ข And yes, ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒโ€™๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜†.โ€ข ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—–๐—–๐—š๐˜€ ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—น๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด๐˜€, far from Pokemon Goโ€™s $800M annual revenue.โ€ข Failure to evolve beyond Snapโ€™s lukewarm success, weak meta, or UGC adoption. Markets failed, too (Artifact).โ€ข Inability to build strong meta loops or explore UGC. ๐—ฆ๐—ฃ๐—”๐—–๐—˜ ๐—”๐—ฃ๐—˜ ๐—š๐—”๐— ๐—˜๐—ฆ ๐——๐—˜๐—–๐—Ÿ๐—œ๐—ก๐—˜๐——; ๐— ๐—ข๐—ฉ๐—˜ ๐—ง๐—ข ๐—ฆ๐—จ๐—ฃ๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—–๐—˜๐—Ÿ๐—Ÿ ๐—ง๐—œ๐—ง๐—Ÿ๐—˜๐—ฆ?โ€ข Turning into ๐—ฆ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—ป (Space Ape brand dead), but games have declined the last year.โ€ข Theyโ€™ve been working on Boom Beach and Hayday, so they […]

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Pocket Pair, the creator of Palworld, cited the patents Nintendo is suing them under.

Pocket Pair, the creator of Palworld, cited the patents Nintendo is suing them under. And boy, is it Japanese patent law nuts. It's enough to radicalize me against patent protection of any type in games (I'm looking at you, Shadow of War). While something might be lost in translation, the breath is insane.๐—ฃ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ก๐—ผ. ๐—๐—ฃ๐Ÿณ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿต๐Ÿญ๐—•๐ŸญIt tries to patent, among other things, how players capture and train virtual creatures over time, including evolution mechanics.โ€” It specifically discussed how multiple evolution paths change stats based on player input (e.g., a creature gets more health because you pet it).๐—ฃ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ก๐—ผ. ๐—๐—ฃ๐Ÿณ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿด๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿต๐Ÿฌ๐—•๐ŸฎThis one is sore nuts, trying to patent how players interact in biomes, like altering terrain or weather conditions. It includes progression systems like resource points based on in-game gathering activities!๐—ฃ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ก๐—ผ. ๐—๐—ฃ๐Ÿณ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿต๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿณ๐—•๐ŸฎThis one is more technical, and I'm unsure how to read […]

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Data Dump Friday

๐—”๐—ก๐—œ๐— ๐—˜ ๐—ฆ๐—›๐—ข๐—ข๐—ง๐—˜๐—ฅ ๐—›๐—œ๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ๐—ธ ๐—ช๐—œ๐—ฆ๐—›๐—Ÿ๐—œ๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—ฆ; ๐—•๐—ฅ๐—”๐—–๐—˜ ๐—ฌ๐—ข๐—จ๐—ฅ๐—ฆ๐—˜๐—Ÿ๐—™โ€ข Strinova hits 400k Steam Wishlistsโ€ข Waifu 3rd-person shooter w/nearly 4M web pre-registrationsโ€ข From iDreamSky, a Chinese Studioโ€ข Has Tencent Moneyโ€ข ~$500M market cap; publicly traded on the Hong Kong Exchangeโ€ข Previously published Western Games in China (e.g., War Robots, Subway Surfers)โ€ข With the rise of Steam China, this could be a considerable cross-region game.โ€ข Remember, Nikkie and Genshin were hits in the U.S. (25% rev share)! ๐——๐—จ๐—ก๐—š๐—˜๐—ข๐—ก ๐—™๐—œ๐—š๐—›๐—ง๐—˜๐—ฅ ๐—ข๐—ก๐—Ÿ๐—œ๐—ก๐—˜, ๐—ง๐—›๐—˜ ๐—•๐—œ๐—š๐—š๐—˜๐—ฆ๐—ง ๐—š๐—”๐— ๐—˜ ๐—ง๐—›๐—œ๐—ฆ ๐—ฌ๐—˜๐—”๐—ฅ, ๐—ฆ๐—Ÿ๐—ข๐—ช๐—œ๐—ก๐—šโ€ข Bigger than Monopoly Go!โ€ข ~$700M over 6 months; iOS onlyโ€ข $88 Revenue Per Download!โ€ข But downloads are crumbling, far below Honor of Kings (10-20k v.s. 500k Weekly)โ€ข Something doesnโ€™t smell right; this limited appeal? Data error?โ€ข The total revenue curve is bending inward, too.๐—›๐—”๐—ฉ๐—˜ ๐—ช๐—˜๐—•๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—ข๐—ฅ๐—˜๐˜€ ๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—”๐—–๐—›๐—˜๐—— ๐—˜๐—ค๐—จ๐—œ๐—•๐—Ÿ๐—ฅ๐—จ๐—œ๐— ? ๐Ÿณ๐Ÿฌ%+ ๐—”๐——๐—ข๐—ฃ๐—ง๐—œ๐—ข๐—กโ€ข Huuuge Games: In H1 2024 DTC revenues accounted for […]

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Gaming Will NOT Grow: Konvoy Data

๐—ž๐—ข๐—ก๐—ฉ๐—ข๐—ฌ ๐——๐—”๐—ง๐—” ๐—ฆ๐—จ๐—š๐—š๐—˜๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐—š๐—”๐— ๐—œ๐—ก๐—š ๐—ช๐—œ๐—Ÿ๐—Ÿ ๐—ก๐—ข๐—ง ๐—š๐—ฅ๐—ข๐—ชโ€ข From $188M to $223M in 2029.โ€ข This means virtually no growth. Huh?โ€ข $188B is worth about $218B in 2029 dollars assuming a 3% inflation rates.โ€ข $218B to $223B is a 2% change, way, way below the S&P 500 8% real ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฏ๐˜ถ๐˜ข๐˜ญ growth rate.โ€ข Inflation and S&P benchmarks need to be a core part of any long-run market analysis. ๐—”๐—š๐—˜ ๐—ข๐—™ ๐—˜๐— ๐—ฃ๐—œ๐—ฅ๐—˜๐˜€ ๐— ๐—ข๐—•๐—œ๐—Ÿ๐—˜ ๐—œ๐—ฆ ๐—›๐—จ๐—š๐—˜โ€ข An over 1M download start is far above other recent releases, including the steady-eddy Sea of Conquest from Fun Plus.โ€ข Uses the RTS element to fake ad into 4x, but less brutally then Last War.โ€ข After a big brand budget burst, will this sustain? Letโ€™s see!๐Ÿฐ๐˜… ๐— ๐—œ๐—ฅ๐—ฅ๐—ข๐—ฅ๐—ฆ ๐—›๐—˜๐—š๐—˜๐— ๐—ข๐—ก ๐—ฃ๐—ข๐—Ÿ๐—œ๐—ง๐—œ๐—–๐—ฆโ€ข U.S. dominates, but Chinaโ€™s RPD is unusually high (~10% of downloads but 20% of revenue).โ€ข 4x is a region uniting […]

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Data Dump Friday; Oct 18th

Data Dump Friday; Fri Oct 18th, Week 21 ๐—๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ปโ€™๐˜€ ๐—ฃ๐—– ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐Ÿฏ๐—ซโ€™๐—— ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿตโ€ข Similar trend when working with clients: Japan stands out.โ€ข Apex Legends famously has a devoted Japanese player base.โ€ข How to figure out where to go next with the insight?โ€ข More Japanese localization and characters?โ€ข The West needs to spend more time understanding how they broke through in Japan to begin with.๐— ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—น๐˜† ๐—š๐—ผ ๐—›๐—ฎ๐—ฑ ๐—” ๐— ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐Ÿฏ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜๐—ต ๐—ฆ๐—Ÿโ€ข Early ARPU signs must have reinforced the decision to launch, but the shape of the ARPU is uncertain. How did they calibrate UA?โ€ข This is where the DS team made big bucks (if they were right).โ€ข The team thought long soft launches drain morale, which is potentially why Squad Busters launched early.โ€ข MiHoYo thinks they can will games to No. 1.๐—ข๐—™๐—™ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—š๐—ฅ๐—œ๐—— ๐—š๐—ข๐—˜๐—ฆ ๐—ข๐—™๐—™ ๐—ง๐—›๐—˜ ๐—š๐—ฅ๐—œ๐——โ€ข Web3 […]

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DATA DUMP FRIDAY; Oct 11th

DATA DUMP FRIDAY; Oct 11th- 9 Month Fortnite Player Count Highs; itโ€™s desperately needed + Continuing storyline: can Epic grow UEFN? + 30% growth in two years and a mediocre trend line isnโ€™t enough.++ Roblox is slaying it (but apparently, itโ€™s all bots)!+ The new EU mobile store should be a part of these metrics.++10M EGS downloads; little active user bump. Yikes.- EA is launching The Sims Labs: Town Stories to playtesters; may the franchise realize its potential.+ Part of EAโ€™s playtesting program, The Sims Labs, where playtesters new ideas roll out within The Sims franchise.++ Embarrassing EA hasnโ€™t grown itโ€™s 30+ Female demo on mobile with this franchise.+ $500M over 10 years; The Sims 4 did $1B half that time.- Archero 2 is in soft-launch; Archero 1 needs re-write.Survivor outclasses + Archero, but decay has slowed.++ No feature direction […]

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It’s Time for Games to Embrace Aggregation Theory

It's Time for Games to Embrace Aggregation Theory In tech writer Ben Thompson's infamous aggregation theory, economic power derives from supply ownershipโ€”train barons owned the track and leveraged that power up and down the supply chain. The internet flipped the relationship: with near zero switching and distribution costs, suppliers instead aggregated user demand to leverage suppliers. Consider Amazon: aggregating millions of customers gained power over suppliers, compelling them to compete on its platform and play by its rules. In a post-ATT and "black hole games" world, gaming unwittingly embraced this dictionary, and distribution has become all-powerful.Previously, games saw a lite version of aggregation theory, as platform owners like Sony and Microsoft owned the track (and thus users), allowing them to set the game's rules. But something funny happened: cross-play, progression, and commerce crumbled console platform power as Epic leveraged Fortnite's […]

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Three Ways to Improve Taylor Swift’s ARPPU

Three Ways to Improve Taylor Swift's ARPPU: A Game Economist Attends the Eras Tour At the Eras Tour in Stockholm, my thoughts naturally turned to Ms. Swift's untapped monetization potential. Despite her billionaire status, she's barely scratched the surface. By embracing "Taylor's Version" labeling, Era-specific merch, and friendship bracelet culture, Swift could double her "extras" ARPPU from $50 to $100.When the Eras Tour comes to town, media outlets scramble for clickbait headlines, and businesses concoct Swift-themed promotions faster than you can say "Shake It Off." Brands quickly turn the occasion into a LiveOps event and co-opt the festivities. Along these lines, a local cookie shop created branded heart-shaped, glitter-coated "Taylor" cookies, but Swift received no revenue. "Free promotion" is a skeptical defense of using someone's likeness for profit. Taylor has always maintained good-natured relationships with her fans, and pursuing legal […]

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Squad Busters One Month Later: Down, But Not Out

While there's no shortage of design suggestions to improve Squad Busters, the more imperative story is the decision to launch and how it launched. It's a tale of understandable frustration combined with a brand that didn't deliver. I thought the IP could pull in historic (and ongoing) download volume, but I was severely and utterly wrong. My priors have firmly shifted to mobile-first IP as ephemeral and an even larger skepticism of brand marketing in mobile.There are many questions about skipping soft-launch, but the alternative is not a big bang. It's slow scale ala Match Factory. We still lack a solid theory of "why," however. Squad Busters One Month Later: Down, But Not Out It's been about one month since Squad Busters launchedโ€”enough time for front-loaded marketing spend to subside and the immediate reality to set. Squad Busterโ€™s launch failed. […]

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Social Casino Continues to Innovate on Liveops

Social casino continues to innovate on liveops, as they have for decades, unbeknownst to many PMs and designers. "Ew, casino" reactions miss essential learnings and design innovation.Liveops matters so much to casinos because the core is so simple (although the slots math is not). There's a smaller design space, so formats are contoured and create unique mechanics.Two stood out from Liquid and Grit & Game Economist Consulting Monthly Round Table on Jackpot Party:Safety Net: when balances hit 0, claim a 10M coin grant. Every 30 minutes, the player is eligible for another claim. This creates a rebounding effect when spending velocity is high and applies to any energy-based system. It also encourages draining balances to 0 as frequently as possible. Star Power: grants players rewards and power if they grow their average transaction size (bet size). This creates an almost […]

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