Phillip Black

𝗡𝗲𝘁𝗳𝗹𝗶𝘅 𝗡𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗰𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗝𝗮𝗰𝗸-𝗼𝗳-𝗔𝗹𝗹-𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 Netflix Games finally has a coherent strategy—hallelujah! Yet, despite this clarity, it's missing the most obvious acquisition opportunity since Sony scooped up Insomniac Games: Jackbox Games. Netflix pushes games to subscribers via a row within its mobile app, directing users to separate App Store pages for download. The strategy was flawed from the start, as 70%+ of Netflix consumption happens on TVs. The Games group desperately sought awareness, resorting to 𝑝ℎ𝑦𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑏𝑜𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠 reading: "Wait, Netflix has Games?" A modest improvement, but still failing to meet subscribers where they are—TV.While Netflix had an AAA FPS studio, it was dubious that it could ever solve distribution or input challenges. Netflix's sprawling device ecosystem and lack of a dedicated controller raised doubts from day 1—unless another ill-fated game streaming service was planned (RIP OnLive, Stadia, GameFly, and xCloud).Enter […]

𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗚𝗗𝗖 𝟭. 𝗪𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝙬𝙖𝙣𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙡𝙞𝙫𝙚This revelation insight from former Machine Zone CEO Gabe Leydon spun my head throughout the conference. He's right: our passion isn't dead, but it's undoubtedly been crowded out. Mobile obsesses over acquisition, while HD fixates on fundraising. New platform dreams—web3, AR/VR, HTML5, UGC—have largely fizzled. Yet these platforms persist, surviving but not thriving. Mock AR/VR as the "Dippin' Dots of Games" if you like, but at least those developers burn with genuine passion.The rest of the industry must reignite the will to survive—the kind we see from firms like Supercell, Lessmore, and Hypehype.𝟮. 𝗔𝗜 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆-𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲; 𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄Michail Katkoff made an excellent observation about the absence of the "world-changing" bravado heard from SF founders intoxicated by Paul Graham essays. Instead, the talks were pragmatic—topics like " 'Angry Birds' and AI […]

𝗔𝗜 𝗜𝗡 𝗚𝗔𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗛𝗔𝗦 𝗙𝗟𝗢𝗣𝗣𝗘𝗗. Humanity may be on a colossal technology frontier, but gaming is being dragged along with AI. Instead of surfing atop the wave, it's retreated to the wake. Gaming has historically been the first-best use case for new technology, so where did it all go so wrong? In the 26 months since ChatGPT launched, Web3 has made more tangible progress than AI gaming applications. Any technology outpaced by Web3's progress is in danger of irrelevance. And it's for good reason: so far, AI's visible footprint in games has been limited to a series of Cosmic Lounge press releases (I want my match-3 levels!) and a sixth finger in Call of Duty key art. Everything else appears to be cheap VC slideware or corporate investor day fantasies. It's true that gaming effectively subsidized the AI revolution by […]

𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗞𝗲𝗲𝗽𝘀: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗤𝟱 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗺 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 The fate of PC & Console's (HD) live-service model hangs on Q5's ambitious lineup: Strinova, Infinity Nikki, Path of Exile 2, Supervive, Marvel Rivals, and Delta Force. Should these titles fail to gain traction, the industry faces a cascade of down rounds, studio closures, and layoffs—not to mention a wholesale reassessment of the HD live-service paradigm. Eric Seufert's meditation on "The last social media platform" may prove prescient; we might witness the same in HD live service.The warning signs are already apparent. Mountaintop Studios' venture-backed Spectre Divide has become a cautionary tale, with peak simultaneous users (PSU) dropping below 100. Supervive's trajectory is similar, maintaining 4,000 PSU despite years of development, encouraging playtests, and the backing of the former League of Legends leadership team. Its salvation may lie in the East, given that […]

Yes, Arcane was a disaster and a function of IP narcissism. It's transmedia bingo 18 different ways. From the Bloomberg exposé:• Riot spent about $250 million on two seasons of the series• Four people with knowledge of Arcane’s production said the company didn’t have a robust plan to recoup the cost of the show before it launched.• Riot believed the show would be the first of many produced by its new entertainment division, which would transform the Los Angeles-based company into the next Walt Disney Co.• Netflix paid Riot $3 million an episode and Tencent an additional $3 million for the rights to show it in China.• Those payments amounted to less than half the total cost. • The company scaled back its Hollywood ambitions recently, ending Arcane and pausing development on other adaptations. • The pricey passion project, backed […]

Arguments justifying Arcane on the grounds that "Riot can afford it" are already lost. This framing positions Arcane as a cost center. Marketing heads are commonly called "Heads of Growth" because marketing isn't supposed to be a cost center; instead, it ought to be a profit center. It's a beautiful show (I loved it! Thank you for your subsidy!), and if Riot wants to spend $250M on IP narcissism, they can and should (they're also a private company), but that's different from justifying it within a cost-benefit framework.It's a common misconception that this framework requires easily observable evidence to be useful. Instead, it asks for higher rigor and a direct answer to "How could Arcane deliver over $250M of ROI relative to the best use of investment?" The higher the investment, the more intense the scrutiny level. Another way to […]