Matthew Emery

𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗼𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗟𝗮𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘂𝗽 showing surprising strength from Vietnamese 🇻🇳 publishers. How are the Dec launches doing today?• 936 games launched in Dec (excluding CN)• 10 (1%) of the 936 have $1M/y + momentum by Feb 15• None of the 10 were from Top100 publishers• 𝟲 𝗼𝗳 𝟭𝟬 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗩𝗶𝗲𝘁𝗻𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀𝗲, 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗮𝗹 / 𝗵𝘆𝗽𝗲𝗿-𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗹𝗲𝘀• 2 are from Ukraine• Top performers were ARK Ultimate Survival (Studio Wildcard 🇺🇸) and Screwdom 3D (iKame 🇻🇳).• 𝗕𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗽𝘂𝘇𝘇𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗺𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁! 🧱 49 rel. in Dec. 👀May the odds be ever in your favor ✌️Data from AppMagic 🪄✨*Tier1 West: either $1M/y gross IAP or IAP + downloads assuming est. $0.40 T1W Ad-LTV.

Why Royal Kingdom (RK) isn't paying off (yet): 1. The primary differentiator (combat levels) don't resonate strongly w mass-market, as evidenced by mode's omission in top ad creatives.2. Lacks economy differentiators that meaningfully lift spend depth or efficiency.3. While core M3 gameplay is 𝘧𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘤 (love the column obstacle), retention performance very likely lags Royal Match.4. Unless CPI for RK (despite similar creatives) is somehow >= ~25+% better than RM, ROAS for incremental UA spend should still side with RM.5. Re: cross promotion from RM -> RK, it's not clear whether this increases (vs. decreases) player LTV in the ecosystem.Yes, Gardenscapes and Homescapes coexisted for a long time.  But, we lack the counterfactual case where all resources were instead poured into one game. Would that have been better?At the end of the day, • Increasing surface area / market share is a […]

With a snap of the Infinity Gauntlet, Tencent dominates another category. This time, ‘shooter/platformer.’  Economy designers, take notes!Feature scope and production values are as eyebrow-raising as we’d expect from TC.In April ‘23, Metal Slug Awakening’s CN release immediately took the market-leading position from Contra (2017, NetEase).Then in July ‘24, it finally released worldwide.Retention is on-par with Contra, but the post-IDFA handicap is a significant headwind.Looks like a $200-$250M product given this trajectory.Not bad for a platformer / run n’ gun.

Meanwhile, in telegram games...

We helped a Top-10-grossing Word game achieve +38% IAP ARPDAU lift. 🚀 Here's how. 1. 30-factor analysis of the product, competitors, internal data, and our vault of 750 prior experiments.2. ID'ed 8 key initiatives, from larger list of 50+, by estimated ROAS lift per unit effort.3. Embedded deeply with the team (on / offsite) to product manage dev and split-testing (this is where clients tell us we feel more like team-members than 'consultants' 😅)Of 8 initiatives:• 2 drove double-digit ARPDAU lifts• 3 drove single-digit lift• 3 didn't move the needleThis was an ideal team for us to work with. They were:• small (under 50 people)• very strong design (chops & leadership)• lacking a Product Management team with 100+ games experienceAs a result they had a product that was high-performing despite having plenty of low-hanging fruit for an experienced Product Manager […]

Useful Rewarded Video insights, based on Unity data Some takeaways:- To achieve optimal RV CV, aim for 15-20 placements (❗️)- Gachified opportunities are highest converting- Realtime action gameplay genres, broadly, drive lower RV volume than turn or move-based gameplay- Maximum RV depth might be achieved via Casino or Word game w/ 15+ placements.

To launch a new F2P Mobile studio in 2024, fundraising requires a unique hypothesis on how to reach market viability.If aiming for top-100 grossing, first principles would suggest three possible paths, each a solution for the same problem: profitable distribution:3 Paths:1) Quality First: Build a game so original / innovative that it distributes itself (Supercell strategy)2) CPI First: Identify a novel distribution path / hack, tailor product for it (Capybara Go, Monopoly GO)3) Operations First: Build / operate with incomparable scale, product scope, efficiency (Tencent)Recent raises by Bit Odd and Antihero seem squarely in the #1 camp. Can this still work?Is there still ample space for pathway #1 to overcome #2-#3 in the current mobile market?

Only 2 mobile F2P categories have >1% success rate for new launches. RPG (1.2%)Strategy (1.1%)Here I’ve defined success as:- $1M+ IAP revenue last month (Net, WW)- launched last 12 months- limited to categories with 2+ successesData from AppMagic’s “Success Meter” feature.

📯📯 Mobile F2P Monetization is “pretty easy” in 2024 IF you do this:1. Choose a proven economy model2. Congrats! “Monetization performance” won’t be the thing that tanks your projectWhat almost certainly will?  Retention and *gasp 😬 CPI 😬In other words, product-market fit.We've been asked... 50 times? to improve monetizationMost of the time, the real problem was:1. Flabby retention, and2. Lukewarm market interest ('normal' CPI)Case in point: My team has 2x’d to 9x’d revenue for 10 games,and … many of these STILL couldn’t scale profitably...because they lacked potent product-market-fit 💀Think about it.99.9th percentile ARPDAU performance won’t save you, if 90% of players leave by d7 after $10-$20 CPI.Focus instead on:1. Deep user research (recruit ideal target players)2. Aggressive IPM testing (hunt POWERFUL resonance)3. D7R testing (delightful core loop, progression)Use KPI targets + hard time gates for accountability.Focus on velocity of experimentationPurge […]

📊 F2P macro trends, Q3 update— 🏋️ 2022 (year after IDFA deprecation) was the year where new games struggled the most…👴🏻  90% of IAP revenue (T1W) was earned by games 3+ years old.🙃 By EO Q3 2024, things certainly appear better, but this ‘New Releases Comeback’ is largely driven by just 3 games.