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John Wright

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2024 Market Predictions: 4-Month Review

As promised, I will review my 2024 predictions throughout the year, checking in once every 4 months (or every 1/3 of the year) to assess their accuracy, rather than avoiding accountability for what I said at the end of 2023.Monday - First 4 predictions (see screenshot below): 1. Consolidation Prediction accuracy: 5/10; somewhat occurred, but not entirely. The major news revolves around data.ai (by Sensor Tower) and Sensor Tower merging to become the largest and arguably most dominant data provider in gaming. Will this lead to a monopoly, potentially posing challenges for those of us in the industry? It's a possibility, but not for now. As for the consolidation of mobile games, significant movements have yet to materialize, but there's ample time for that to change. Embracer Group, however, took the opposite route by splitting into three parts, which contradicts […]

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Top 10 gaming predictions for 2024 by John Wright

I was recently approached by a media outlet to share my top 5 gaming predictions for 2024, which made me think, f*ck it, I’m going to extend the list to my top 10 for the year overall (in no particular order): 1. Consolidation among top gaming companies will continue, making it tougher for small to medium-sized studios to thrive independently. Even successful ones will consider partnering with larger publishers due to the increasing challenges in user acquisition and profitable game launches.2. Mergers and acquisitions will see a resurgence, with venture capitalists increasing their investments, albeit not reaching the levels of two years ago. I've observed a growing number of investments and discussions among business leaders recently which will come to fruition soon (hopefully). VC firms, having had a quieter year, will need to take more risks but will do so […]

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Publishing Games Takes an Army: The Power of Expert Teams

You've all heard the saying, "It takes a village to raise a child," but have you heard, "It takes a f*cking army to publish a game" (John Wright 2023)?I've been brutally honest about the current state of the market, explaining in detail some of the reasons why developers and publishers are finding it harder than ever to launch successful games.Kwalee is fortunate enough to be one of the few companies currently launching multiple games at once. At Slush last week, a VC asked me what our secret sauce was — how do we maintain a solid pipeline with qualified new games that are profitable?I had only one answer for him, and it's the same reason why I believe that moving forward, the big publishers will continue to be the successful ones: resources, specifically, a massive team of experts in a […]

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User Acquisition Evolution in 2023

The gaming industry has seen many changes over the past few years, with significant changes from Apple making it more difficult for developers to target the right players and maximize revenue. Many teams are completely re-evaluating their user acquisition strategies to ensure that they can maintain a thriving mobile game. So, if you aren't aware already, to say UA in 2023 is challenging would be an understatement. This becomes evident when we look at the major players in the gaming industry, including Kwalee, and notice that the number of game launches in the market has significantly decreased compared to two years ago. One pivotal event contributing to this shift was Apple's deprecation of IDFA, which made it harder to target higher-quality users, resulting in a significant drop in revenue-based metrics (ARPU, ARPDAU, LTV, ROAS). “In 2023, marketability no longer holds […]

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