2025 Trends and Predictions 8-10

Part 4/5 - 2025 Trends and Predictions 8-10 Here are the final three of my yearly projections, probably the most unconventional ones or the ones most likely to be called b*llshit!8. Hybrid Casual Evolves Into CasualHear me out: back in January 2024, during the PGC Live Special with two & a half gamers Gamers, I told Jakub Remiar that hybrid is just a stepping stone to casual games. And I stand by it. From my own experience, the "hybrid" games I've been working on lately are arguably only a step away from being fully casual. They already include the bulk of casual features, player motivations, and economic drivers. Sure, they might lack full PvP functionality for now, but that could easily be added in the future. My prediction is simple: hybrid devs have learned the ropes of casual development and […]

John Wright November 14

Journal

My 2025 Predictions and Trends

2025 Predictions & Trends So, is 2024 pretty much wrapped up? Launch schedules briefed? Sprint planning done? Q4 goals all set? Great, let's dive into my top 10 predictions for 2025!1. HTML5 GamesA trailblazer in Q3 for mobile games, the industry has truly woken up to the substantial revenue potential outside the walled gardens of Apple and Google. The resurgence and expansion of HTML5 games are closely linked to developers seeking to boost studio EBITDA and, ultimately, ensure survival. Platforms like Wechat and Telegram offer not only incremental revenue but also massive, engaged audiences and opportunities for cost-effective, targeted user acquisition. Meta Instant Games has just integrated IAPs for the first time, and double-digit CAGR growth on Poki and CrazyGames highlights the market’s potential. All signs point to HTML5 as something every developer should be exploring next year.2. Alternative StoresIn […]

John Wright November 13

Journal

Where has the year gone?

Part 1 of 5: Where has the year gone? With Slush being next week it signals to me that the year is practically gone, or atleast, Q5 is on our doorstep, with that in mind I wanted to share my 2024 predictions from this time last year plus the addition 4 I did at the 6 month mark to take stock before putting out my 2025 predictions this week.So overall how did my predictions fair against the year?Well, as always, there's winners and losers but I would say overall, and mostly, correct, with a few exceptions and caveats as always.1. Consolidation? Yes we continued to see big companies acquire smaller ones and overall the big get bigger (no sh*t sherlock).2. Mergers and Acquisitions? Yes, namely SuperPlay being acquired by Playtika and I would have liked to seen more deals in […]

John Wright November 11

Journal

Today I officially joined Kwalee a year ago.

Today I officially joined Kwalee a year ago. During those 365 days I’ve achieved a lot, including some really wonderful career highlights, and I just feel so fortunate to do what I love in business. Before I share some of those highlights I would like to say thank you to all of my team who helped me a long the way, the partners and studios and obviously the Kwalee executive leadership team for their guidance. A few highlights:- Met 100’s of developers, tested 1000’s of games and signed 10+ incredible studios that were working with right now to bring killer games to market.- Tested dozens of internal game concepts across different studios and brought to market some great prospects (the best are yet to come!)- Started writing articles using my experience in the industry to help those learning about UA, […]

John Wright October 1

Journal

Never been harder to launch a new game

When I started, the focus was on Casual games and IAP. Things like rewarded videos and interstitial ads weren’t as established as they are now. Back then, the strategy was to optimize for paying users - you accepted that 95% of your players wouldn’t spend any money, and it was the other 5% who essentially covered your user acquisition costs and generated profit. That was the golden age of “whales” and targeting before things like ATT and IDFA deprecation rewrote the rulebook. Then came new ad formats that let us monetize non-paying users, which played a big role in the rise of Hyper Casual games. It’s funny because now I see some companies going back to practices from 2015 or 2016, refocusing on quality over quantity. IPM is no longer the main metric of success, and we can see this […]

John Wright September 12

Journal

Today’s Landscape: Publishing-Perfect 2

While the mobile market can be incredibly lucrative, that’s only the case if your game gets noticed. And being noticed in a sea of other games is no easy feat. Many mobile games never even make it to launch due to low projections, and when they do make it, many titles fly under the radar or have only a brief moment in the limelight. Working with a publisher who understands your game and goals is a way to see through the storm and set your game on the right track. The Importance of Good Game Mechanics and a Robust Meta I want to delve into the critical components that make a game appealing to both players and publishers alike. Rather than focusing on sales pitches, let's objectively examine what publishers are currently seeking in the gaming landscape. The power of […]

John Wright July 22

Journal

Monetization Series: Economy, IAP, Personas, and LiveOps

Part 1: The Basics In-game monetisation is a vital part of the mobile games ecosystem. Today, I’m going to start off with the general basics and things you should all know before going into more complex topics over the next 5 days. Monetisation for mobile games can be easily broken down into two main categories: Free to Play and Premium. Very simply, Free to Play allows you to download games for free to your device but has “micro-transactions” or advertisements which allow developers to make money after the fact, whereas, Premium you pay an upfront fee to play the game. Traditionally this was a one-time fee which allowed you to play the game without subsequent transactions. However that has changed over the last few years. Free to Play is 99% of the industry, so I’ll stick to that for now. […]

John Wright June 17

Journal

Today’s Landscape: Publishing-Perfect 1

"2023 is shaping up to be a year where big companies and publishers lead the charge, and this trend will likely continue in 2024." Last year, the mobile games market had its first-ever decline as player behaviors changed due to life returning to a resemblance of normality after the pandemic. Other factors within the industry, such as rising costs, a more demanding user acquisition process, and various other industry changes, have made finding success and profits a far higher order. I mentioned in my UA series that launching a game has become significantly more challenging this year, especially on iOS after the IDFA deprecation. If you take a look at the top 100 games in the US, you'll notice a few key trends: “I've had discussions with approximately 70-80 C-level executives from studios of varying sizes and locations, and there […]

John Wright June 3

Journal

2024 Market Predictions: 4-Month Review

As promised, I will review my 2024 predictions throughout the year, checking in once every 4 months (or every 1/3 of the year) to assess their accuracy, rather than avoiding accountability for what I said at the end of 2023.Monday - First 4 predictions (see screenshot below): 1. Consolidation Prediction accuracy: 5/10; somewhat occurred, but not entirely. The major news revolves around data.ai (by Sensor Tower) and Sensor Tower merging to become the largest and arguably most dominant data provider in gaming. Will this lead to a monopoly, potentially posing challenges for those of us in the industry? It's a possibility, but not for now. As for the consolidation of mobile games, significant movements have yet to materialize, but there's ample time for that to change. Embracer Group, however, took the opposite route by splitting into three parts, which contradicts […]

John Wright May 1

Journal

Top 10 gaming predictions for 2024 by John Wright

I was recently approached by a media outlet to share my top 5 gaming predictions for 2024, which made me think, f*ck it, I’m going to extend the list to my top 10 for the year overall (in no particular order): 1. Consolidation among top gaming companies will continue, making it tougher for small to medium-sized studios to thrive independently. Even successful ones will consider partnering with larger publishers due to the increasing challenges in user acquisition and profitable game launches.2. Mergers and acquisitions will see a resurgence, with venture capitalists increasing their investments, albeit not reaching the levels of two years ago. I've observed a growing number of investments and discussions among business leaders recently which will come to fruition soon (hopefully). VC firms, having had a quieter year, will need to take more risks but will do so […]

John Wright March 1

Journal

Publishing Games Takes an Army: The Power of Expert Teams

You've all heard the saying, "It takes a village to raise a child," but have you heard, "It takes a f*cking army to publish a game" (John Wright 2023)?I've been brutally honest about the current state of the market, explaining in detail some of the reasons why developers and publishers are finding it harder than ever to launch successful games.Kwalee is fortunate enough to be one of the few companies currently launching multiple games at once. At Slush last week, a VC asked me what our secret sauce was — how do we maintain a solid pipeline with qualified new games that are profitable?I had only one answer for him, and it's the same reason why I believe that moving forward, the big publishers will continue to be the successful ones: resources, specifically, a massive team of experts in a […]

John Wright February 9

Journal

User Acquisition Evolution in 2023

The gaming industry has seen many changes over the past few years, with significant changes from Apple making it more difficult for developers to target the right players and maximize revenue. Many teams are completely re-evaluating their user acquisition strategies to ensure that they can maintain a thriving mobile game. So, if you aren't aware already, to say UA in 2023 is challenging would be an understatement. This becomes evident when we look at the major players in the gaming industry, including Kwalee, and notice that the number of game launches in the market has significantly decreased compared to two years ago. One pivotal event contributing to this shift was Apple's deprecation of IDFA, which made it harder to target higher-quality users, resulting in a significant drop in revenue-based metrics (ARPU, ARPDAU, LTV, ROAS). “In 2023, marketability no longer holds […]

John Wright January 15

John Wright

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