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Gus Viegas

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Let’s wrap up the week with some news headlines.

Finale: Let's wrap up the week with some news headlines.No, not the unity runtime fee - something bigger: A new model from OpenAI. One of the biggest flaws of AI so far has been its logic and math performance.The previous model, 4o, scored 13% on the math olympiad problems.The newest one just released, scored 83%.(Funny enough, similar to the math olympiad score I had back in high school 🤓 )This is probably the Q* project they've been teasing (or being leaked).But what's the significance? Why is this relevant? Don't we already have calculators?The thing is, predicting words is one thing, logic is a completely separate pattern that can lead to better chain-of-thought reasoning that can answer tasks more effectively.The current model is said to perform as well as PhD students in physics, biology, and chemistry.Let's tinker around and see what […]

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Let’s talk about mobile game marketing

Part 4: Now let's talk about mobile game marketing These are going to be based on very anecdotal data from talks with different market leaders in Europe and sprinkled with personal opinion. Take them with a grain of salt.Challenge me on them, so we all learn. 1. The difference between which are the top iOS UA networks and the top Android networks is increasing. Networks that you wouldn't see on the top 5 of one being top 2 on the other. Not naming names, but DM me and I can provide what I've been seeing. The key point here being that ever since the IDFA deprication it was different, but never this much. It might be that learnings from Android don't translate to iOS as much anymore - which would make me wonder: how are you doing creative tests on […]

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Let’s talk some mobile gaming insights

Alright enough pleasantries, let's talk insights.Part 3: Some revenue tactics and trends 1. Did you know some networks are claiming a "DMA tax" on top of their reported spend? Effectively distancing their reported gross ROAS further from the actual Net value? -> Remember to keep updating your net revenue tax tables every quarter with your finance team, the numbers on your dashboard might be outdated, which will lead you to make bad judgment calls.2. Ad skip-its seem to be on the way out versus VIP no-ads subscriptions. It kind of makes sense, it's a bit of a mechanism to convert hypercasual games to hybrids rather than a feature thought with UX in mind from the ground up. It's a bit overly complex of a concept to teach. The real question then becomes: Is a VIP no-ads subscription the end-all-be-all for […]

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Series on why gaming layoffs have been happening

Part 5, the Finale - "But why now?"Thank you for reading this series on why gaming layoffs have been happening. You might have noticed me shouting out the local union and recruiters in past posts.This is because there's no place like home.Finland is a great home for Game Development.The culture of sharing and the work-life balance are like no other, and it's no surprise there are amazing companies here like Rovio Entertainment Corporation, Futureplay Games, Cosmic Lounge, and Supercell.Talk to cool people like Oleg Paliy and Juan Fernandez Castellano - they might know how to help you if you're curious.------So we talked about the ever-present trends that lead to layoffs...(Part 1) It's not AI causing job losses but the lack of R&D and new games.(Part 2) Game projects inevitably die out without that R&D, leading to inevitable layoffs if companies […]

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The Predictable Contradictions

Part 4 - "The Predictable Contradictions"A series on why the layoffs are happening in the gaming industry. Again, would love to reference more people helping out in the space:Internationally, I see a lot of amazing posts by Jordan Mazer.If you want a job, he might be The One.Locally, I'd like to shout out to someone who guided me here in Finland, Arja Martikainen. Who went above and beyond what you'd normally expect from the listings at gamesjobs.fi1. The industry has been here for a while - and its money flows have become increasingly predictable. We optimized revenue offers and acquisition funnels to a large extent, which helps us forecast and model what happens next.2. Venture capitalists, the lifeblood of many startups, can juggle ROAS models in their sleep. One would argue, if you know the cost of acquiring users and […]

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The Great Gaming Singularity

Part 3 - "The Great Gaming Singularity"A series on why are the layoffs happening in the industry. Very thankful for all the ideas coming in, thanks to Ivan Lugovoy,Sasu Louke and some others I've had chats about this with.Speaking of - shoutout to Game Makers of Finland.Unions are critical in moments like this.So, let's dissect a trend that's reshaping our companies:Strategic investors taking over the M&A landscape in the past years and how that's leading to the topics I covered before: Lack of R&D and innovation.Welcome to the era of the Great Gaming Singularity!Talking from an European industry worker's perspective here, so correct me if I'm wrong but - Small companies feel like plankton being scooped up by the larger whales of the industry.What's the incentive to these bigger companies? Well, powerful data moats.The more users collected within these walled […]

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What causes the gaming industry layoffs?

What causes the gaming industry layoffs? Part 2 - "Interlude - The Ebbs and Flows of a Game Project." Thank you John Wright for giving me the idea of making this a series rather than one giant post.And thank you Carlos Salvado 🔜 GDC for having me go deeper on this.Part 1 in the comments.So we realized it isn't AI - because it's just a tool, just like Photoshop was a tool.We need people to use the tools.Do some people quit or get fired for not adapting?Sure, I've actually heard stories already.But it's a handful of people in comparison with the thousands laid off.I talked about R&D, new games, being essential to gain sustainability as a business. But why? What happens in the standard cycle of a game studio?A game and it's ideas, most of the times, come from previous […]

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What value is in Gen AI nowadays?

People often ask "What value is in Generative AI nowadays?"The answer, if you want numbers, is between 43% and -26%. Key learnings from the BCG study (link in the comments):1. For the tasks AI is good at, you can expect a double digit increase in productivity.2. People are not aware yet of what a "task AI is good at" is. We need more testing and transparency.3. If the task isn't something AI is good at and you just regurgitate its answers, it actually causes more harm than good.4. AI assistance is a great leveler of skill. People who want to play catch up with senior talent benefit more from this.5. Prompt engineering or, in other words, "being better at using chatbots to engage with the LLMs" does help improve performance and avoid worst-case scenarios of using AI.6. The best uses […]

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Are the gaming industry layoffs related to AI? No.

Are the gaming industry layoffs related to AI? No. Part 1 - AI doesn't replace R&D, and the lack of R&D caused this.Gaming companies aren't getting huge AI gains yet.We're still in the experimental phase where most gains are obscured by the time and resources needed to test and learn new processes.Those resources? Typically a small unit is relegated to creating tools or marketing content that might help, but not fundamentally change the business.It would take a whole new business made from scratch to fully embrace the gains. *wink wink*Even when there are gains, they still need new talent & processes to operate them. *more winking and pointing to the comments*And those gains? For now, there are efficiency gains.Not creative achievements or discoveries of new business opportunities.So what's going on? What's dragging the gaming sector down right now?I believe it […]

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