Gaming Will NOT Grow: Konvoy Data

𝗞𝗢𝗡𝗩𝗢𝗬 𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗔 𝗦𝗨𝗚𝗚𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗦 𝗚𝗔𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗪𝗜𝗟𝗟 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗚𝗥𝗢𝗪
• From $188M to $223M in 2029.
• This means virtually no growth. Huh?
• $188B is worth about $218B in 2029 dollars assuming a 3% inflation rates.
• $218B to $223B is a 2% change, way, way below the S&P 500 8% real 𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘶𝘢𝘭 growth rate.
• Inflation and S&P benchmarks need to be a core part of any long-run market analysis.

𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗢𝗙 𝗘𝗠𝗣𝗜𝗥𝗘𝘀 𝗠𝗢𝗕𝗜𝗟𝗘 𝗜𝗦 𝗛𝗨𝗚𝗘
• An over 1M download start is far above other recent releases, including the steady-eddy Sea of Conquest from Fun Plus.
• Uses the RTS element to fake ad into 4x, but less brutally then Last War.
• After a big brand budget burst, will this sustain? Let’s see!

𝟰𝘅 𝗠𝗜𝗥𝗥𝗢𝗥𝗦 𝗛𝗘𝗚𝗘𝗠𝗢𝗡 𝗣𝗢𝗟𝗜𝗧𝗜𝗖𝗦
• U.S. dominates, but China’s RPD is unusually high (~10% of downloads but 20% of revenue).
• 4x is a region uniting genre. Mirrors hegemon geopolitics? (Europeans don’t care).
• In the U.S. China is dominating 4x, while Star Trek Fleet Command has been slipping.
• While webstores explain the revenue decrease, downloads look soft (but far better than revenue).

𝗔𝗥𝗖𝗛𝗘𝗥𝗢 𝟮 𝗦𝗢𝗙𝗧 𝗟𝗔𝗨𝗡𝗖𝗛𝗘𝗦; 𝗡𝗘𝗘𝗗𝗘𝗗 𝗡𝗢𝗪
• Developer Habby (China) is stacking revenue, but Survivor.io is the real winner.
• $400M total revenue to Archero’s $250M in less than half the time.
• SSSnaker and Souls haven’t delivered significant results.
• Sub $20M-a-year games in the long run.
• Archero 2 and their other SL title, Capybara Go! have a lot of ground to cover and prove.
• How does a firm grow out of hybridcasual’s medium-run declines?
• If only there was a name for it…

𝗗𝗘𝗟𝗧𝗔 𝗙𝗢𝗥𝗖𝗘 𝗜𝗦 𝗔 𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗟 𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗧 𝗧𝗢 𝗕𝗔𝗧𝗧𝗟𝗘𝗙𝗜𝗘𝗟𝗗
• No.4 in wishlists following Steam Next F2P Demo in mid-Oct
• PSU peaked at 40k (around rank 30 on Steam).
• Timi developed (China) using ol’ 98′ IP.
• Last entry was in 2009, from USA-based and IP-creator Novalogic.
• Large-scale shooter with separate extraction mode.
• Chinese content volume, F2P, and a weak Battlefield means this could shake up “scale shooters.”