2024 Market Predictions: 4-Month Review

As promised, I will review my 2024 predictions throughout the year, checking in once every 4 months (or every 1/3 of the year) to assess their accuracy, rather than avoiding accountability for what I said at the end of 2023.

Monday – First 4 predictions (see screenshot below):

1. Consolidation Prediction accuracy:
5/10; somewhat occurred, but not entirely.

The major news revolves around data.ai (by Sensor Tower) and Sensor Tower merging to become the largest and arguably most dominant data provider in gaming. Will this lead to a monopoly, potentially posing challenges for those of us in the industry? It’s a possibility, but not for now. As for the consolidation of mobile games, significant movements have yet to materialize, but there’s ample time for that to change. Embracer Group, however, took the opposite route by splitting into three parts, which contradicts “consolidation” technically.

2. Mergers and Acquisitions
Prediction accuracy: 6/10;developments underway, but major actions are yet to be seen.

– Take-Two Interactive are acquiring of Gearbox Entertainment from Embracer, valued at over $400 million.
– Monumental‘s undisclosed acquisition of Game Circus.
– Voldox undisclosed acquisition of Roblox‘s Ultimate Football.
– Savvy Games Group openly stating that the Scopely acquisition is the first of many for them.

3. IP-Based Games
Prediction accuracy: 8/10; significant activity, with more expected.

– Monopoly Go emerging as the world’s biggest game.
– Rollic announcing a Barbie game slated for release by year-end.
– Voodoo introducing a Transformers-themed takeover for one of their games.
– Kwalee launching a Ghostbusters AR game.
– Electronic Arts (EA) revealing that their mobile strategy will focus on IP games.

4. LiveOps and Events
Prediction accuracy: 9/10; current leading games are not necessarily new releases.

– Royal Match becoming the fastest game ever to reach $3 billion in revenue, jumping from $2 billion in a short span.
– Monopoly Go doubling its revenue from $1 billion to $2 billion in just three months.
– Launching new games has become increasingly challenging, with the number of new games in the top 20 declining year over year.
– Brawl Stars’ monthly revenue skyrocketing from $10 million at the end of 2023 to an impressive $50-60 million in 2024.

Overall, the predictions are fairly accurate, but ongoing developments throughout the year will determine their true accuracy.

Please feel free to comment if you disagree with any of my points!

Alright, let’s dive into Tuesday and review the accuracy of the next three predictions I made.

As I mentioned yesterday, if you have anything to add, any disagreements, or insights, please drop a comment below!

5. Mindset Shift from Acquisition to Cultivation
Prediction Accuracy: 7/10; Some notable successes, strategic changes observed, but more developments expected.

Monitoring this shift isn’t straightforward, but a prime example is Supercell‘s revamped strategy for Brawl Stars (which I briefly mentioned yesterday). At the end of last year, they were acquiring about 3 million new users monthly, which has now surged to 10 million, a growth of 230%. However, the real intrigue lies in the revenue metrics: RPU jumped from $3.3 to $5.9, a 76% increase, while gross revenue soared from $10 million to $58 million, a staggering 487% rise. Many studios are also very vocal about hybridizing their hyper-casual portfolios, offering previously successful games a second, potentially more lucrative life. A really smart strategy when launching new games have never been harder.

6. AI in Games
Prediction Accuracy: 8/10; Significant coverage and interest, but is it all hype?

AI in gaming is on everyone’s lips these days. Last year focused more on quick iterations and new concept creation in marketing assets. A noteworthy talk by Kenjy VANITOU highlighted how Voodoo reduced asset creation time from 24 to 1 hour using AI. This year, we’re witnessing more daring explorations of AI in gameplay, with shout-outs to my friend Gus Viegas at Cosmic Lounge, who’s leading the charge. King has also openly discussed integrating AI into aspects of level design, predominately for user testing and QA but still interesting to see one of the biggest names in mobile doing this.

7. Hybrid Casual / Casual Becoming the Winning Genres
Prediction Accuracy: 9/10; The industry is heavily leaning into this trend, with those not onboard exploring or investing in it already.

Back in January, I mentioned Hybrid is a stepping stone for studios into Casual. Was I mistaken? I think not:

– Kwalee released its first casual game, “Text Express,” by Story Giant Games. – Supersonic from Unity secured a casual shooter, Nitro Games Plc‘s Autogun Heroes.
– Voodoo went to the new level and intensified its focus on Midcore.
– Supercent delved into Hybrid with the very successful and fun, Pizza Ready!
– “My Perfect Hotel” by SayGames emerged as the gold standard of Hybrid Casual.
– Merge (casual) seems to be the new frontier, with many studios converging on it, largely due to the success of Travel Town.

The last 3 predictions out of the 10 I made at the end of 2023.

8. Google Sandbox
Prediction Accuracy: 3/10; Some general mentions at Think Games Istanbul, but it’s still too early in the year to determine.

This will come into full effect by Q4 2024, I believe. It will gradually gain more traction throughout the year, and developers will focus more as time goes on. I anticipate that when I revisit these predictions in Q4, we might have more to discuss.

9. Apple Arcade and Netflix
Prediction Accuracy: Apple – 4/10; Netflix – 7/10. This is truly a tale of two halves:

Netflix secured a significant portion of the GTA back catalogue, which dominated the top of the mobile charts and drove considerable business. Similarly, the announcement of Hades is expected to have a similar impact in the upcoming period.

Apple has been very vocal about gaming being a priority. However, as an Apple Arcade user myself, I can’t say that the quality of the games has met my expectations. I’ve noticed many “plus” versions but not much beyond that. Hello Kitty Island was probably their biggest game last year, and we’ll need to see a lot more in 2024 to improve that score.

10. The return of an older Casual sub-genre (Puzzle RPG was my suggestion)
Prediction Accuracy: 9/10 for “A Casual Genre”, 1/10 for it being Puzzle RPG.

“Merge” is back, baby! Travel Town has exploded this year, sparking a wave of merge games. I’m seeing at least one really good submission to our publishing team every week. I’m not sure if any will make it through our green light process, but who knows! Maybe Kwalee will publish one soon! Alice’s Dream, Gossip Harbour, and Merge Mansion are all thriving.

To sum up the last 3 days, I believe I was more right than not, but we still need to see progression throughout the next 8 months to truly assess my accuracy!

So over the last 3 days, I revisited my 10 projections for 2024 and assessed their accuracy. Today, I’ll be adding a few new ones based on what I’ve observed over the past 4 months.

So here are 4 new predictions or at least observations of things I missed that are gaining traction:

1. Webstores.

After the DMA, everyone is talking about this. There’s been good documentation on the likes of Playtika, making 25% of their revenues through this now. The benefits are simple: you pay Apple and Google less money. In a time where revenue and profit are so precious, it makes sense why people are jumping on the bandwagon. However, Apple is not making it easy with their $0.50 yearly technology fee, so it hasn’t seeped out to Hybrid casual yet. But let’s see what happens over the next 8 months. I see this as a high-growth channel for most studios!

2. Community-based UA and Discord for Mobile Games

Something that I’m hearing more and more about is “free UA,” again because of the current industry headwinds and increasing CPIs. Trying to find smart and inventive ways to scale DAU while not paying a fortune for your users makes sense. Arguably, to build out a community, you need a strong IP which players relate to and a strong Live Ops/content strategy to keep them around. With how games are evolving to be more robust, I see this happening a lot more by the end of the year.

3. MENA becoming the rising star of 2024.

Something I’ve been vocal about over the last 6 months is the rise of MENA in gaming. With Savvy Games Group recent announcements about their budget being 10X what they invested in Scopely ($4bn+), there is obviously going to be a lot of waves coming out of the region. We’re also seeing events in Dubai, the Emirates, and Morocco taking root. Equally, I know from Kwalee own partnerships with NEOM that they’re investing big in educating and growing new studios, which will bear fruit soon!

4. Squadbusters becomes the number 1 downloaded game globally

For a bit of fun, I think based on all the hype and quality reviews, Supercell’s new game will end up becoming the most downloaded game of the year. Royal Match and Monopoly Go will continue to be the big revenue drivers, but Squadbusters will put more bums in the seats than the others combined!

Well, what do people think of my new predictions/observations?