While there’s no shortage of design suggestions to improve Squad Busters, the more imperative story is the decision to launch and how it launched. It’s a tale of understandable frustration combined with a brand that didn’t deliver.
I thought the IP could pull in historic (and ongoing) download volume, but I was severely and utterly wrong. My priors have firmly shifted to mobile-first IP as ephemeral and an even larger skepticism of brand marketing in mobile.
There are many questions about skipping soft-launch, but the alternative is not a big bang. It’s slow scale ala Match Factory. We still lack a solid theory of “why,” however.
Squad Busters One Month Later: Down, But Not Out
It’s been about one month since Squad Busters launched—enough time for front-loaded marketing spend to subside and the immediate reality to set. Squad Buster’s launch failed. We were hilariously wrong about the launch prospects of this game.
Much less than acquiring portfolio-high download volume, Squad Busters is Supercell’s weakest launch entry, behind only Boom Beach. While Squad Busters initially drove massive download quantity, it quickly sputtered out, and poor download quality translated to lackluster active users and revenue.
The unreliability of pre-registration numbers, the overestimation of brand equity, and the waning influence of first-party featuring are soon becoming recurring themes in mobile gaming; Squad Busters’ launch throws these challenges into the spotlight.
It’s particularly a poor showing of Supercell’s IP. Gathering all Supercell IPs under one roof was supposed to be Squad Busters’ strength, but the result is irreverent. Supercell may have brand recognition, but brand equity remains questionable.
One thing we know for sure: Squad Busters launched too early. Forgoing a soft launch deprived Supercell of the ability to assess even Day 30 KPIs. This decision remains puzzling, as there was no pressure to launch Squad Busters. Brawl Stars is completing a historic comeback, while Clash Royale requires immediate attention. Instead, Supercell now needs to repair both Clash Royale and Squad Busters while also managing a plethora of other initiatives: Spark Labs, a growing investment of 19 companies, scaling headcount & remote work, and a North American studio that rears its head once a quarter.
While the decision to forgo a soft launch was wrong, it was human. Sources indicate that no individual made the call, and leadership stood behind the decision. Forgoing a soft launch reflects a near decade of understandable Supercell frustration and an easy way out of prolonged soft launches: “Just do it.”
Combined with a brand view of Supercell IP as akin to Nintendo, glowing first-party allegiance, and an eagerness to rack up another win on top of Brawl Stars’ revival, Squad Busters’ launch was too tempting to pass up. Squad Busters is a disciplined reminder of the importance of soft launching and a reality check on the strength of platforms and mobile-first IPs.
While the game holds immense promise—a claim we stand behind—game lead Eino Jonas and the team are tasked with growing its magnitudes behind its portfolio peers. Yet, Brawl Stars reminds us that nothing is outside Supercell’s purview.
