Don’t Make New Mobile Games

A piece of advice for new dev teams:

Don’t make new mobile games.

Choose another platform for now (PC / UGC / Web).

Here’s why:

From a business perspective, developing new mobile games has lost its appeal over the past four years because of:

📊 Success Rate (For Experienced Teams):
— Then: ~1 successful game out of 10-15 projects.
— Now: <1 successful game out of 50 projects, even for top teams. 🔽

💰 Development Costs:
— Then: MVP development required 5-8 experienced specialists.
— Now: 20-30 or more for casual games. 🔼

💲 Potential Profit (Revenue – UA spends): remains unchanged at best.

➡ As a result, the Expected Value of prototyping has decreased. 🔻

Expected Value = (Potential Profit * Success Rate) – Dev Costs

Even the biggest companies like Playrix and Supercell struggle to launch new games despite unlimited budgets.

What does this mean for new teams?

— The entry ticket for mobile game dev has become very expensive.

— You need millions of dollars to expect your studio to survive until one of your games brings significant profit.

— With current challenges in attracting venture capital, such budgets are rare, especially for newcomers.

So, I’d say that most new development teams should consider UGC platforms (Fortnite / Roblox) or PC development in the current market.

These platforms let you reach a large audience with lower marketing costs due to virality and community building. The expected value is higher.
————————————————————————————

Now, don’t get me wrong.
I’m not saying “mobile is dying” or anything like that.

Mobile is a huge market, it’s not going anywhere, and will evolve.

And I believe many unique opportunities are emerging in 2024 in games.

Just be selective in seeking opportunities and don’t swim against the tide. 🙂