A piece of advice for new dev teams:
Don’t make new mobile games.
Choose another platform for now (PC / UGC / Web).
Here’s why:
From a business perspective, developing new mobile games has lost its appeal over the past four years because of:
📊 Success Rate (For Experienced Teams):
— Then: ~1 successful game out of 10-15 projects.
— Now: <1 successful game out of 50 projects, even for top teams. 🔽
💰 Development Costs:
— Then: MVP development required 5-8 experienced specialists.
— Now: 20-30 or more for casual games. 🔼
💲 Potential Profit (Revenue – UA spends): remains unchanged at best.
➡ As a result, the Expected Value of prototyping has decreased. 🔻
Expected Value = (Potential Profit * Success Rate) – Dev Costs
Even the biggest companies like Playrix and Supercell struggle to launch new games despite unlimited budgets.
What does this mean for new teams?
— The entry ticket for mobile game dev has become very expensive.
— You need millions of dollars to expect your studio to survive until one of your games brings significant profit.
— With current challenges in attracting venture capital, such budgets are rare, especially for newcomers.
So, I’d say that most new development teams should consider UGC platforms (Fortnite / Roblox) or PC development in the current market.
These platforms let you reach a large audience with lower marketing costs due to virality and community building. The expected value is higher.
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Now, don’t get me wrong.
I’m not saying “mobile is dying” or anything like that.
Mobile is a huge market, it’s not going anywhere, and will evolve.
And I believe many unique opportunities are emerging in 2024 in games.
Just be selective in seeking opportunities and don’t swim against the tide. 🙂
