How to Spot a successful Hybrid Casual Game?

How to Spot a successful Hybrid Casual Game?
Is it the IAP or the downloads? Answer is surprising:

You simply can never be sure. (Why? on PS)
Yet you can get PRETTY close.
and trust me, you want to get close.

Here is my theory:

Let’s take puzzles: you are looking for stability.
Track the RETENTION. Like day 60+.
How do you find that?

Well check out the downloads and Revenue.
Revenue that starts piling up after 60 days.
Cause, thats gonna be almost 100% IAP.
Therefore, your IAP Rev chart is actually your
LONG TERM retention. like d60-d180

For education purposes, I used 2022-2023-2024.
Numbers won’t matter cause these are Top ones.

When you spot a game scaling for a year,
And THEN getting IAP, again for a long period.

Congrats. You got yourself a fantastic game. 🦄

To measure this accurately, you gonna need to
Set up your custom dashboards on AppMagic
Check it out once or twice a week and that’s it.

In The Deconstructor of Fun TWIG:316 episode,
They talk about how hybrid casuals lose
Profit on Ad Revenue after a while, and depend on
Retained players in app purchases. That is also
A theory, but kind of aligns with mine.

PS: You can never be %100 sure with this method cause
some games rely on IAP mostly, while others on ADs.
Add Applovin campaigns and now all estimates gone.
Also, this will be different on each country. But hey,
I never said its easy to estimate haha!