2025 Trends and Predictions 8-10

Part 4/5 – 2025 Trends and Predictions 8-10

Here are the final three of my yearly projections, probably the most unconventional ones or the ones most likely to be called b*llshit!

8. Hybrid Casual Evolves Into Casual

Hear me out: back in January 2024, during the PGC Live Special with two & a half gamers Gamers, I told Jakub Remiar that hybrid is just a stepping stone to casual games. And I stand by it. From my own experience, the “hybrid” games I’ve been working on lately are arguably only a step away from being fully casual. They already include the bulk of casual features, player motivations, and economic drivers. Sure, they might lack full PvP functionality for now, but that could easily be added in the future. My prediction is simple: hybrid devs have learned the ropes of casual development and will fully transition by 2025. Why? The hybrid market’s TAM is under $2bn yearly, while casual gaming sits at a massive $40bn TAM. That’s a far bigger pool of quality users to compete for, and one that hybrid devs will chase.

9. Big Publishers Dominate, Small Studios Pivot to Steam

The trend of consolidation through M&A continues, but here’s the kicker: from a UA and monetization perspective, it’s becoming almost impossible to self-publish unless you’re already a certain size. Setting up accounts with major mediation platforms and UA providers isn’t easy, and managing them successfully requires expertise and relationships that smaller studios often lack. As a result, more developers will gravitate toward partnerships with bigger publishers. Meanwhile, those who can’t find success on mobile will increasingly pivot to Steam. We’ve already seen a rise in AA and “III” games this year, making Steam an attractive option for many. However, in my opinion, breaking into Steam is even harder than succeeding on mobile.

10. Anime Games Are Booming: AAA Design and Cross-Platform Growth

As someone who’s been into anime and manga since I was 12, it’s exciting to see the genre finally go mainstream. It’s no longer just “geeky”, it’s f*cking cool! Netflix’s live-action strategy, especially with the success of One Piece, has propelled Western adoption. Disney+ picking up Bleach: Thousand-Year Blood War was another massive milestone. In gaming, major releases like the Korean manhwa-inspired Solo Leveling: Rise showcased the potential for mobile and cross-platform experiences. For example, Dungeon & Fighter Mobile reportedly made $800M in its first month in China alone! While the western release (expected later in 2025) might not reach the same heights, I think it’ll still make waves globally. The anime gaming genre is poised for strong double-digit CAGR, with increasing Western acceptance. Shoutout to my friend Adrien Bacchi ⚡🐦⚡ for his upcoming release of Manga RPG!

Well, that’s it, my top 10 trends and predictions for 2025! Tomorrow, I’ll be asking for some suggestions from industry friends and sharing all this as a document for easy consumption!