My 2025 Predictions and Trends

2025 Predictions & Trends

So, is 2024 pretty much wrapped up? Launch schedules briefed? Sprint planning done? Q4 goals all set? Great, let’s dive into my top 10 predictions for 2025!

1. HTML5 Games
A trailblazer in Q3 for mobile games, the industry has truly woken up to the substantial revenue potential outside the walled gardens of Apple and Google. The resurgence and expansion of HTML5 games are closely linked to developers seeking to boost studio EBITDA and, ultimately, ensure survival. Platforms like Wechat and Telegram offer not only incremental revenue but also massive, engaged audiences and opportunities for cost-effective, targeted user acquisition. Meta Instant Games has just integrated IAPs for the first time, and double-digit CAGR growth on Poki and CrazyGames highlights the market’s potential. All signs point to HTML5 as something every developer should be exploring next year.

2. Alternative Stores
In line with the first point, alternative app stores have surged over recent months. With the EU’s DMA loosening the duopoly’s hold on mobile gaming, new opportunities are emerging. I’ve personally observed LTVs from Amazon store users hitting 30-40% higher than iOS recently. Combined with the expansion of alternatives like Samsung Electronics, Huawei, OneStore and technology like KYLN there’s now room to negotiate better terms (lower IAP tax) and increase profitability. A special mention goes Epic Games, set to launch its new store imminently. Leveraging some of their PCC playbook, Epic could be an excellent example of how everyone benefits from prioritizing this strategy.

3. D2C / Web Stores
If you haven’t seen at least ten articles on this already, where have you been? But in all seriousness, this trend is another success story fueled by the DMA, allowing companies to maximize profits by cutting down on IAP fees. It’s a no-brainer, right? If your games generate 30-50% of revenue through IAPs, you should definitely consider testing an integration with one of the many companies now specializing in this. Some large casual and mid-core developers are already seeing 30%+ of all revenue coming from direct channels, potentially improving their bottom lines by millions!

4. Privacy Will Worsen Before It Gets Better
Last year, I predicted that Google Sandbox / Privacy would begin affecting our ability to conduct UA on Android. I may have been a bit early, but it seems likely that we’ll feel the effects by the end of H1 this year. While this won’t be another ad-pocalypse like Apple’s ATT, given Google’s ad-focused business model, we should still expect a decline. I’m predicting around a 20% downturn for Android overall. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel and finally we’re seeing green shoots of technology evening the playing field back in to developers favour, AppsFlyer and Geeklab have tech cooking you should all check out!

5. Walled Gardens Continue to Win—And Win Big
Eric Seufert has been saying this for as long as I can remember, but I truly believe that while we’re seeing the democratization of areas like app stores and the IAP landscape (which is great for developers), walled gardens and companies with the most varied and expansive datasets will continue to dominate. A clear and recent example is AppLovin vs. Unity. AppLovin is now approximately 12 times larger in market cap and could potentially swallow up Unity if it wanted to, a major contributor to this growth and success is because of extremely smart data plays with the acquisitions of MoPub and Adjust. That’s a scary thought for my old colleagues! The sheer scale of these data-driven giants means their dominance is set to grow even further.

6. AI Becomes Central to Game Ideation and Design
AI adoption has been significant in areas like marketing (e.g., UGC and AI-generated actors for content) and within big studios for tasks like automating QA by mimicking user behaviour. However, very few companies are leveraging AI in the earlier stages of game ideation, design (beyond level creation), and production. I predict that in 2025, we’ll see the first game where over 50% of its foundation, such as the core loop, base code for the game mechanic, and initial documentation (GDD), will be generated by AI. A human team will polish it to completion, but AI will play a significant role in these early stages, changing how games are created.

7. Transmedia and IP Gain Traction in a Overly-Competitive UA World
Cue Eric Kress rolling his eyes, but hear me out. Transmedia and integrated holistic experiences will begin to engage users on multiple levels. Think series, movies, and games all built around the same IP, drawing audiences deeper into their favourite characters lore and worlds. A great example is Arcane Season 2, but I think other players SEGA and The Pokémon Company International are following suit. Pokémon’s TCGP launch is a case in point, I believe it will generate at least $1 billion in the next 12 months (Phillip Black, mark my words). The real advantage of transmedia IP is clear: it enables mass-market acquisition for free (thanks to an established audience), effective cross-promotion across mediums, and cheaper UA through better creative performance driven by brand recognition.