Background

๐—ก๐—˜๐—ช ๐—ฃ๐—ข๐—ž๐—˜๐— ๐—ข๐—ก ๐—ง๐—–๐—š ๐—ช๐—œ๐—Ÿ๐—Ÿ ๐—š๐—ข ๐—ก๐—ข๐—ช๐—›๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—˜

Phillip Black

๐—ก๐—˜๐—ช ๐—ฃ๐—ข๐—ž๐—˜๐— ๐—ข๐—ก ๐—ง๐—–๐—š ๐—ช๐—œ๐—Ÿ๐—Ÿ ๐—š๐—ข ๐—ก๐—ข๐—ช๐—›๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—˜
โ€ข Prior mobile Pokemon CCG ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฏโ€™๐˜ต ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜๐˜ˆ๐˜—. Yes, thatโ€™s right.
โ€ข The new game is polished but revolves around timer-based pack openings.
โ€ข ๐—ฌ๐—ผ๐˜‚ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—ปโ€™๐˜ ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜† ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ธ๐˜€ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚ ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜† ๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ธ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—บ.
โ€ข Over $20M so far, but downloads ๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜.
โ€ข Japan dominates ($26/download; U.S.: $4.36).
โ€ข Strong collection loops with Codex moments at pack openings but a weaker version of physical CCG.
โ€ข And yes, ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒโ€™๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜†.
โ€ข ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—–๐—–๐—š๐˜€ ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—น๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด๐˜€, far from Pokemon Goโ€™s $800M annual revenue.
โ€ข Failure to evolve beyond Snapโ€™s lukewarm success, weak meta, or UGC adoption. Markets failed, too (Artifact).
โ€ข Inability to build strong meta loops or explore UGC.

๐—ฆ๐—ฃ๐—”๐—–๐—˜ ๐—”๐—ฃ๐—˜ ๐—š๐—”๐— ๐—˜๐—ฆ ๐——๐—˜๐—–๐—Ÿ๐—œ๐—ก๐—˜๐——; ๐— ๐—ข๐—ฉ๐—˜ ๐—ง๐—ข ๐—ฆ๐—จ๐—ฃ๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—–๐—˜๐—Ÿ๐—Ÿ ๐—ง๐—œ๐—ง๐—Ÿ๐—˜๐—ฆ?
โ€ข Turning into ๐—ฆ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—ป (Space Ape brand dead), but games have declined the last year.
โ€ข Theyโ€™ve been working on Boom Beach and Hayday, so they may be draining the 1st-party headcount.
โ€ข The ultimate reality is that they should ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜„๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ด๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜.
โ€ข Thatโ€™s with Supercell titles, whose mass scale guarantees that even ๐Ÿญ% ๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐˜€ ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฒ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฒ.
โ€ข Chrome Valleyโ€™s run rate has declined from a growing $๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌ๐—  ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด $๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐—  ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜ ๐˜†๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ.
โ€ข Beatstar is mainly ad-supported, but downloads are declining, suggesting a decline in ROAS.

๐——๐—ข ๐—ฆ๐—ข๐—–๐—œ๐—”๐—Ÿ ๐—–๐—”๐—ฆ๐—œ๐—ก๐—ข ๐—ฃ๐—Ÿ๐—”๐—ฌ๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—ฆ ๐——๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—”๐—  ๐—ข๐—™ ๐——๐—œ๐—–๐—˜ ๐—ข๐—ฅ ๐——๐—ข๐— ๐—œ๐—ก๐—ข๐—ฆ?
โ€ข Focus on Dice Dreams on Playtikaโ€™s $1.25B buyout of Superplay in Sept., but Domino Dreams is a part of the story.
โ€ข Growing faster on some metrics (revenue), but r๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ณ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ป๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜† ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜ ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ.
โ€ข Another win for the ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐˜€๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฎ ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฎ, with ๐—ฎ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐˜€ on an additional match core with a domino skin (and corresponding gameplay mechanics).

๐——๐—ฅ๐—”๐—š๐—ข๐—ก ๐—”๐—š๐—˜ ๐—›๐—”๐—ฆ ๐—œ๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—ฅ๐—ข๐—ก๐—š๐—˜๐—ฆ๐—ง ๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—˜๐—”๐—  ๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—”๐—ฅ๐—ง; ๐—•๐—”๐—–๐—ž ๐—–๐—”๐—ง๐—”๐—Ÿ๐—ข๐—š ๐—ฆ๐—˜๐—Ÿ๐—Ÿ๐—ฆ, ๐—ง๐—ข๐—ข
โ€ข ~$๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐—  ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐Ÿญ ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—บ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฒ for Veilguard and prior entries suggest a long-lifetime revenue curve.
โ€ข ๐—˜๐—ณ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ and moderate content re-packages keep titles like Origins shipping units more than ten years after launch.
โ€ข It added $2M in the lead-up to Veilguard and segways players to the next title.
โ€ข ๐— ๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐—ฎ $๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ-$๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ ๐—จ๐—น๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—˜๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป at moderate content costs!

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